{"id":1937,"date":"2026-09-06T00:17:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-06T00:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/karolpelc.com\/InvestorSnippets\/?p=1937"},"modified":"2026-09-07T08:20:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T08:20:03","slug":"week-36-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/karolpelc.com\/InvestorSnippets\/2026\/09\/06\/week-36-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Week 36"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Macro<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Global growth remained resilient<\/strong>, led by a renewed acceleration in US activity, but the underlying labor data were firm rather than unequivocally inflationary. US payrolls increased by 162,000 in August against 55,000 expected, unemployment held at 4.1%<\/strong>, participation rose to 61.6% and average weekly hours increased to 34.4. Average hourly earnings advanced 0.27% month-on-month and 3.09% year-on-year, showing no renewed wage acceleration. Hiring was concentrated: food services added 59,000 jobs and local-government education 42,000, together accounting for 101,000 of the headline gain; manufacturing added 16,000, while information lost 23,000. June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000, including July from \u221223,000 to +21,000. ISM manufacturing remained expansionary at 54.6 and services accelerated from 54.1 to 55.4, with new orders reaching 60.9 and prices paid 72.6, although services employment contracted at 47.8. The combined evidence supports resilient growth without clear overheating, shifting the September decision from employment toward inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s resilience increased its capacity to absorb the energy shock<\/strong>, but the divergence between headline and underlying inflation argues against treating it as a renewed domestic inflation cycle. The final euro-area composite PMI held at 52.0<\/strong> and Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. August headline HICP increased from 2.9% to 3.3% as energy inflation reached 14.3%<\/strong>, but services inflation declined from 3.3% to 3.0% and core inflation eased to 2.4%<\/strong>. The data support near-term policy restraint, but subsequent tightening would require energy costs to spread into wages, services prices and inflation expectations while weakening real household consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China stabilized rather than reaccelerated<\/strong>, while the wider Asian cycle remained supported by AI-related manufacturing but increasingly exposed to imported energy inflation. China\u2019s official manufacturing PMI improved from 49.2 to 49.8, with new orders returning to expansion at 50.6<\/strong>, while the private manufacturing index rose from 50.9 to 51.5 and services remained near 51.4. Export-oriented technology and advanced manufacturing strengthened, but official non-manufacturing activity, employment and domestic demand remained weak. Elsewhere, India expanded 7.8%, Malaysia 6.0% and Taiwan 12.93%, while Japan\u2019s composite PMI reached 53.5 and retail sales rose 4.0%. Japan remains particularly vulnerable to the energy shock because more than 90% of its crude came from the Middle East before the conflict, although diversification lifted the US share to 36.3% by July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil experienced a major geopolitical repricing<\/strong>, but the available evidence does not yet establish a material loss of global physical supply. Brent rose from $89.31\/bbl on August 28 to $96.28 on September 4, a gain of $6.97 or 7.8%. On September 5, US forces disabled the M\/T Downy near Kharg Island and M\/T Stark 1 near Jask and destroyed a third unladen carrier in the Gulf of Oman after Iranian missiles targeted two US Navy vessels. Stark 1 was reportedly carrying oil, Downy\u2019s load status remains unknown and the third vessel was empty, limiting confirmed cargo losses to one and potential losses to two. No disruption to Kharg loading volumes or reliable barrels-per-day estimate has been established. The 8.9% rise in September Persian Gulf-to-China VLCC freight pricing from September 1 to September 4 indicates higher transit risk, but not yet wholesale rerouting or a confirmed aggregate supply shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s retaliation increased the probability that the risk-premium shock spreads into physical supply, freight, household fuel and food prices.<\/strong> The IRGC said it subsequently targeted three tankers using what it called an unauthorized Hormuz route and three US-affiliated vessels, while warning of stronger reprisals if American strikes continued; no diplomatic off-ramp emerged through Saturday evening. US diesel had already reached a record $5.85 per gallon and Labor Day gasoline approached $4.03, directly reducing household purchasing power. Hormuz also carries approximately one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade and nearly half of seaborne sulfur, exposing agricultural and industrial supply chains to further disruption<\/strong>. Until tanker tracking and Kharg loading data confirm lost barrels, the episode remains an escalation in risk premium rather than a proven physical supply shock, but further attacks would create nonlinear inflation consequences precisely when resilient US and European activity leaves central banks with limited flexibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Rates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Treasuries finished modestly weaker, with the belly underperforming as renewed inflation pressure outweighed Waller\u2019s conditional support for holding rates.<\/strong> The 2-year yield rose 2.1 bps, the 10-year increased 6.2 bps to 4.78%<\/strong>, and the 30-year climbed 3.8 bps to 5.25%. The uneven selloff steepened 2s10s by 4.2 bps while flattening 5s30s by 2.8 bps, pointing to pressure concentrated in intermediate maturities rather than a fresh long-end fiscal shock. Waller\u2019s remarks temporarily supported a front-end-led rally, partly reversed by stronger payrolls<\/strong>. As discussed in Macro, employment resilience preserved the Fed\u2019s room to tighten, while moderating wage growth left the inflation release decisive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Higher inflation compensation drove most of the five-year selloff, while long-run inflation expectations and estimated term premium remained broadly stable.<\/strong> Five-year breakevens widened 6.1 bps with real yields essentially unchanged; at ten years, the increase was more evenly split between breakevens (+3.5 bps) and real yields (+2.6 bps). The 5y5y inflation swap held near 2.435%, arguing against broad unanchoring. Meanwhile, the supplied ACM ten-year term-premium estimate edged down to 72.3 bps, attributing the nominal-yield increase primarily to expected short rates within that model. Together, these measures distinguish near-term inflation and policy repricing from an increase in compensation for duration risk, without dismissing fiscal pressure as a structural influence on yield levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global sovereign performance diverged by maturity, qualifying the narrative of a synchronized bond rout.<\/strong> German and UK ten-year yields rose approximately 6\u20137 bps, broadly matching Treasuries, but Japan\u2019s curve twisted sharply: two-year yields increased 13.3 bps while 30-year yields fell 12.8 bps, flattening 2s30s by 26.1 bps. UK front-end yields also rose substantially while the long end was little changed. BOJ normalization can alter the relative appeal of foreign bonds, but these weekly outcomes do not establish persistent Japanese long-end selling as the driver of global duration weakness. The stronger common feature was pressure on policy-sensitive maturities alongside more resilient long bonds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bessent\u2019s expanded buybacks offer technical support by removing duration from investors, while shifting financing risk toward shorter maturities.<\/strong> The relevant announcement occurred on 2026-08-19; the supplied package identifies no new operation during this week. Maximum purchases targeting longer-dated nominal securities are scheduled to rise to at least $4 billion per operation from 2026-09-09, following just over $40 billion of long-end purchases through the earlier announcement date. Financing purchases with bills can improve off-the-run liquidity and reduce privately held duration, but shortens the government\u2019s funding profile and increases rollover exposure<\/strong>. Using the Treasury General Account would instead consume its cash buffer and initially add banking-system reserves, all else equal. Neither reduces the underlying deficit. The reported reversal of August\u2019s initial yield decline illustrates the limits of price support, while additional corporate duration issuance could partly offset Treasury purchases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next coupon auctions will test whether buybacks improve long-end absorption ahead of a major inflation catalyst.<\/strong> The supplied calendar lists $119 billion of issuance: $58 billion of three-year notes on 2026-09-08, a $39 billion ten-year reopening on 2026-09-09 and a $22 billion 30-year reopening on 2026-09-10. The expanded buyback program begins alongside the ten-year auction, while the long-bond reopening immediately precedes CPI, potentially increasing the concession investors require. This week\u2019s bill-auction bid-to-cover ratios of 2.63\u20133.61 times indicate continued short-term absorption, but say little about demand for coupon duration. Auction tails, dealer allocations and subsequent trading will provide the more relevant evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Curve selection remains more useful than a broad duration call, with inflation-sensitive maturities exposed to policy repricing and long bonds offering higher prospective real returns.<\/strong> The inflation outlook discussed in Macro will determine whether Waller\u2019s conditional hold becomes more credible; benign data could support the front end and belly, while stronger underlying inflation could renew their underperformance. Reported net non-commercial ten-year futures shorts of approximately 909,000 contracts as of 2026-09-01 create potential short-covering demand, although hedged strategies limit their interpretation as an outright bearish position. Thirty-year real yields near 3% strengthen the case for selective long-horizon exposure, but tactical additions still depend on auction absorption and policy pricing rather than confidence that Treasury intervention can cap yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Credit<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Credit softened modestly ahead of September\u2019s supply surge, with excess returns pointing to an orderly adjustment.<\/strong> US IG OAS widened 2.0bps to 80.0bps and HY widened 7.0bps to 267.0bps, generating total returns of \u22120.29% and \u22120.15%. Excess returns of \u22120.07% and approximately zero indicate that government-bond performance accounted for most of the losses. Euro IG and HY ended at 80.2bps and 263.2bps, returning \u22120.24% and \u22120.33%, with excess returns of \u22120.04% and \u22120.09%. Friday brought modest synthetic-credit tightening: CDX IG fell approximately 0.1bps to 50.01bps and CDX HY declined 1.19bps to 300.60bps. Those daily moves suggest no broad closing risk-off response, although comparison with full-week cash spreads cannot establish a cash-CDS divergence or isolate the payrolls effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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September\u2019s issuance pipeline will test demand more meaningfully than the relatively quiet pre-holiday week.<\/strong> After record August US IG issuance of $163\u2013164bn, Bloomberg\u2019s dealer survey projected approximately $215bn for September, replacing the earlier $200\u2013210bn estimate and exceeding September 2025\u2019s $148.5bn by about 45%. BofA\u2019s approximately $190bn forecast offers a more restrained alternative. Deducting $58.5bn of scheduled maturities implies $156.5bn of net supply before calls, tenders and other adjustments; around $70bn was expected during 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-11. The latest weekly wrap reported $9.3bn of IG issuance, with 64% of new bonds subsequently trading tighter. That indicates orderly absorption, but provides limited evidence of capacity for the forthcoming acceleration. Sustained secondary performance and new-issue concessions will be the more useful tests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Issuer dispersion warrants selective underwriting<\/strong>, while AI financing remains a structural supply issue rather than this week\u2019s immediate driver. Average BBB\u2212 constituent OAS widened 8.3bps to 108.7bps, versus approximately 1.8\u20132.1bps across the reported AA, A and BBB groups. These bond-level averages are affected by maturity, sector and constituent composition, but identify the lowest IG rung for closer scrutiny. In HY, 102 of 1,928 bonds screened at OAS of at least 1,000bps: 5.3% by security count, not market value or a default rate. Earlier long-dated borrowing still increases competition for duration alongside Treasuries. Credit selection should distinguish investment funded from operating cash flow from incremental leverage, and supply concessions from deterioration<\/strong>, while treating software disruption and automotive competition as separate business-model risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BCRED\u2019s repeated redemption limits reveal persistent exit demand<\/strong>, but liquidity and asset-quality indicators remain mixed. September disclosures showed requests for approximately 10% of shares, worth around $4.3bn, against a 5% repurchase limit<\/strong>, implying roughly $2.15bn fulfilled. The similar Q2 pattern and resubmission of unfulfilled requests mean successive quarters cannot be added together as entirely new withdrawal demand. Reported liquidity of $17bn includes committed facilities, not just cash. NAV per share declined 2.2%, from $24.19 at 2026-03-31 to $23.65 at 2026-06-30, before reportedly stabilizing in July; supplied research cited non-accruals of 2.2% at cost. These figures justify scrutiny without proving widespread impairment. Cliffwater\u2019s 17% request rate relates to Q2, with Q3 unavailable, while subsequent reporting of 2.5% requests at KKR Income Trust I offers a counterpoint across funds with different characteristics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Subsequent private-credit reporting reinforces the value of liquidity and valuation discipline.<\/strong> The supplied 2026-09-05 report described a Blue Owl-managed Loparex exposure being marked near zero<\/strong> after previously high valuations, illustrating how reported marks can adjust abruptly as credit outcomes deteriorate<\/strong>. This issuer-specific development remains separate from Friday-close performance and BCRED\u2019s portfolio statistics. Across credit, the emphasis is on preserving capacity to assess new-issue concessions, testing BBB\u2212 vulnerability issuer by issuer and distinguishing contractual liquidity from realizable exit value. September supply clearing with sustained secondary support would strengthen the constructive case; broader concessions, persistent underperformance or worsening loan metrics would challenge the current picture of an orderly adjustment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Equities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US equities held their ground as AI-related strength offset a worsening energy and interest-rate backdrop, but most stocks failed to participate. The S&P 500 gained 0.09% to 7,718.60, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.40% to 26,506.99, and the Russell 2000 added just 0.11%, while the Dow declined 0.27%. Friday\u2019s stronger-than-expected payrolls report unwound much of Thursday\u2019s S&P 500 advance, reinforcing the policy uncertainty inherited from the preceding Friday\u2019s Jackson Hole speech. International performance was weaker: local-currency price returns were \u22122.09% for the Nikkei, \u22121.97% for the DAX, \u22121.46% for the CAC 40 and \u22121.33% for the CSI 300, while the Hang Seng gained 0.26%. US resilience therefore reflected selective earnings support within a market facing higher discount rates and renewed pressure on margins, rather than a general improvement in risk appetite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Energy and Technology led sector returns, while consumer exposure and economically sensitive industries absorbed the pressure from higher oil prices. Energy gained 2.26%, supported by WTI\u2019s 9.69% rise from $83.40 to $91.48 following the US-Iran escalation. Information Technology advanced 1.09%, with semiconductor strength including a 3.4% Friday gain in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Utilities rose 0.74% and Health Care 0.17%. Consumer Discretionary fell 2.12%, followed by Materials \u22121.57%, Industrials \u22121.10%, Consumer Staples \u22120.89%, Communication Services \u22120.46% and Financials \u22120.04%; Real Estate\u2019s XLRE ETF proxy declined 1.24%. The distinction between the leaders matters: higher oil prices improve producer economics while reducing purchasing power and increasing costs elsewhere, whereas technology\u2019s support depends on continued investment and earnings delivery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Breadth and fund flows showed that investors were concentrating exposure rather than adding risk broadly. Only 209 of 503 S&P 500 securities advanced, approximately 41.6%, while the equal-weight index delivered a \u22120.74% total return, contrasting with the capitalisation-weighted index\u2019s marginal price gain. Russell 1000 Growth returned +0.56%, versus \u22120.27% for Value, and the MTUM momentum ETF gained 1.72%, all on a total-return basis. Bloomberg\u2019s supplied fund-universe data recorded $4.71bn of large-cap and $884m of small-cap US equity ETF outflows in the week ending 2026-09-04, against $323m of technology ETF inflows; technology mutual funds lost $135m. Dispersion also cut across sector boundaries: Robinhood gained 17.12% despite a slightly negative Financials sector, while Edison International fell 19.10% despite Utilities\u2019 advance. Sector allocation alone therefore concealed substantial security-specific risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dell\u2019s results provided concrete evidence that AI infrastructure demand is translating into revenue, profits and a larger order book. Dell (DELL) gained 14.88% over the week after reporting fiscal Q2 revenue of $46.97bn, up 58% year on year, and adjusted EPS of $7.04, up 203%. AI server revenue reached $16.4bn, with $60.9bn of quarterly orders and a $95bn closing backlog. Management raised full-year revenue guidance by $25bn to $192bn and AI server revenue guidance from $60bn to $74bn. Growth extended beyond AI servers: traditional servers and networking revenue increased 122%, while storage grew 26%. The investment case strengthened through greater revenue visibility and a higher earnings trajectory, although backlog conversion, delivery capacity and cash generation remain the tests of how much of that demand accrues to shareholders. Dell results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Broadcom demonstrated that accelerating AI earnings do not guarantee a positive share-price response. Broadcom (AVGO) declined 2.95% over the week, despite fiscal Q3 revenue of $29.59bn, up 86%, adjusted EPS of $3.32, and AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7bn, up 221%. Management guided Q4 revenue to approximately $34.8bn, including $21.7bn of AI semiconductor revenue, with a 66% adjusted operating margin; quarterly free cash flow reached $13.7bn. These figures support continued expansion, but the negative reaction suggests that delivery against elevated expectations and the economics of future growth are increasingly decisive. Cybersecurity offered another source of earnings support: Palo Alto Networks reported $3.41bn revenue, up 34%, and $1.02 adjusted EPS, with remaining performance obligations rising 34% to $21.2bn. Across AI-related equities, the portfolio question is shifting toward the durability, profitability and price already paid for growth. Broadcom results, Palo Alto Networks results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The post-close S&P rebalance created a separate implementation catalyst, with identifiable buying and selling requirements ahead of its effective date. Announced after Friday\u2019s close, Bloom Energy (BE), Illumina (ILMN) and Everpure (P) will enter the S&P 500, replacing Molson Coors (TAP), Trade Desk (TTD) and Builders FirstSource (BLDR), effective before the open on 2026-09-21. Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks and Sandisk will also enter the S&P 100. For passive portfolios, the changes concentrate execution requirements around the 2026-09-18 closing auction, with potential price pressure as other investors anticipate benchmark demand. Inclusion-related support should be assessed separately from earnings revisions, and additions do not by themselves establish the direction of aggregate sector-weight changes. S&P DJI announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next test is whether earnings delivery can continue to offset higher discount rates without broader participation. The 10-year Treasury yield ended approximately 6bp higher at 4.784%, while the supplied Bloomberg pricing indicated a 61.9% probability of a September rate increase at Friday\u2019s close. The VIX\u2019s retreat from 16.34 intraday to 14.53 signalled that immediate hedging demand had subsided, despite the unresolved oil shock. CPI on 2026-09-11 and the FOMC decision on 2026-09-16 are therefore relevant through their effect on equity multiples and financing costs. The evidence favours retaining exposure to demonstrable AI earnings while controlling correlated growth and momentum concentration. A broader advance would require improving participation and earnings revisions outside the current leaders; persistently expensive oil would instead strengthen the case for selective producer exposure and businesses able to defend margins.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Macro Global growth remained resilient, led by a renewed acceleration in US activity, but the underlying labor data were firm rather than unequivocally inflationary. US payrolls increased by 162,000 in August against 55,000 expected, unemployment held at 4.1%, participation rose to 61.6% and average weekly hours increased to 34.4. Average hourly earnings advanced 0.27% month-on-month […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":8}},"yoast_head":"\nWeek 36 - Weekly Investor Snippets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/karolpelc.com\/InvestorSnippets\/2026\/09\/06\/week-36-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Week 36 - Weekly Investor Snippets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Macro Global growth remained resilient, led by a renewed acceleration in US activity, but the underlying labor data were firm rather than unequivocally inflationary. US payrolls increased by 162,000 in August against 55,000 expected, unemployment held at 4.1%, participation rose to 61.6% and average weekly hours increased to 34.4. 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