The only four paths to significant wealth
There are only four ways to create acquire wealth (to become highly wealthy – HNW, or ultra wealthy – UHNW):
Karol Pelc
Diversyfication ≠ Variety
Owning a wide range of assets doesn’t automatically make you diversified. True diversification is about managing uncorrelated risk, not just achieving variety. Diversification isn’t simply adding more assets to a portfolio — it’s about strategically allocating to assets that behave…
Economic Growth ≠ Equity Gains
Economic growth must exceed expectations to generate abnormal stock returns, something increasingly difficult when starting expectations are already high. As a result, the relationship between GDP growth and stock market returns tends to be weak or even negative, despite widespread…
Equities value potential over proof
Equity markets serve as aggregators of collective investor expectations about future developments, reinforcing that potential is the central determinant of stock valuations rather than proof. Stock prices are predominantly forward-looking, embedding investors’ forecasts regarding future earnings, growth opportunities, competitive positioning,…
Bond Skewness in Portfolios
Skewness measures the asymmetry of return distributions, influencing investment risk-return profile, making it an essential statistical tool for portfolio management. Equity returns exhibit a negative skew, whereas Bond returns exhibit a neutral or slightly positive skew. However, there are certain…
Services stabilize the economy
The service economy demonstrates a sustainable pattern of spending, supported by its inherent diversity and the essential nature of many services. This growth trajectory can only be significantly disrupted by a strong exogenous shock that affects multiple industries and leads…
Demand and expectations
The financial market is driven more by expectations of future demand than by past fundamentals. It is an emotional theatre where stories, narratives, and psychology dictate direction far beyond the underlying fundamentals.
Golden Rule for bond portfolio duration
Bond markets are forward-looking, pricing in expected monetary policy moves. Surprises occur when a central bank’s actions or communications deviate from these expectations. These banks significantly impact bond prices and returns as the market reprices bonds based on new, unexpected…
Buybacks are typically beneficial
Buybacks are beneficial payouts as they are typically taxed more favourably than dividends*. A 1% buyback tax was introduced in the US in 2023 and increased to 4% in 2025. Buybacks increase shareholder ownership and can boost earnings per share…
Signals from the housing market
Housing is a leading economic indicator due to its sensitivity to interest rates and economic sentiment. When housing demand weakens, it often signals broader economic challenges, such as reduced consumer confidence, tighter credit conditions, or slowing job growth. The housing…