Selling volatility for income works because investors consistently overpay for convexity and insurance. Index options are priced with implied volatility that, on average, exceeds the volatility markets ultimately realise. The gap between implied and realised volatility is the volatility risk…
Value in investing is not visible. It cannot be observed directly, and it is never proven by the actions of other investors. As Warren Buffett famously said, “Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” This distinction matters…
Betting on equities is essentially betting that human beings will become more productive over time. As long as societies innovate, improve technology and raise living standards, the value that corporations create compounds. Because of this underlying engine of progress, investing…
Despite wars, recessions, and crises, the U.S. stock market has remained one of the most reliable engines of wealth creation and human progress. A single dollar invested in U.S. equities around 1870, with dividends reinvested, would have grown to roughly…
Strong historical correlations often break down over shorter time frames, creating opportunities for investors who can identify and exploit these dislocations. Examples of strategies that profit from such breakdowns include: Investors who exploit those patterns must be aware that the…
Markets aren’t just fragile when they crash—they’re fragile when they lose diversity. As Nassim Taleb defines it, fragility means vulnerability to shocks, while antifragility describes systems that benefit from disorder. What determines whether a market is fragile or antifragile is…
Bonds are often called “risk-free,” but that only holds true if held to maturity—something most investors don’t do. Instead, the majority gain exposure through mutual funds or ETFs, which are constantly rebalanced and marked to market. This exposes them to…
There are only four ways to create acquire wealth (to become highly wealthy – HNW, or ultra wealthy – UHNW):
Owning a wide range of assets doesn’t automatically make you diversified. True diversification is about managing uncorrelated risk, not just achieving variety. Diversification isn’t simply adding more assets to a portfolio — it’s about strategically allocating to assets that behave…
Economic growth must exceed expectations to generate abnormal stock returns, something increasingly difficult when starting expectations are already high. As a result, the relationship between GDP growth and stock market returns tends to be weak or even negative, despite widespread…