Karol Pelc

Karol Pelc

Tempestuous price and serene fundamentals

Fundamentals tend to be serene, while prices are tempestuous. Market sentiment, news reconciling large information asymmetry, events resetting expectations, liquidity, momentum, and technical factors are all responsible for these dynamics. Understanding the stimulant of a large price move is an…

Consumer income

Consumers can access 3 types of income Assessing the health of an economy and predicting future consumption and economic growth potential, involves a comprehensive analysis of cycles and trends of savings, employment income, and credit.

Gravitating towards the rational outcomes

Markets and securities are often overbought or oversold, and they can maintain or extend those conditions for a long time. The outcomes that are more likely to happen may not happen until long after they first became likely. Markets can…

IG growth

The investment grade (IG) market grew fivefold between 2006 and 2023, while the balance sheets of IG market makers shrunk during that period. This increased the sensitivity of credit spreads to liquidity. During the same period, more liquid Fixed Income…