Macro US GDP seasonally adjusted growth was at 4.9% annualized in the July-through-September period; biggest gain since Q4 2021. This unexpectedly strong reading is supported by increases in inventories, exports and governemnt spending, but most importantly by increase in the…
MACRO Investors observe generally weakening global economic backdrop. This is a reflection of the rapid tightening cycle, which continues despite the softening global growth. There are fiscal concerns around growing deficits and increasing debt servicing costs caused by the higher…
MACRO On the inflation front, we see overall more downward pressures. Over many months increases in rents had a significantly impact on the core inflation, given it’s over 40% weights in the index and steady increase of its contribution since…
Macro Equity and bond prices took a hit on Tuesday, after reporting hot JOLTS data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). Available positions rose to 9.6m from under 8.9m (revised) in July, with little change to hirings (5.9m) and quit…
MACRO Economy remain resilient but majority of economists are expecting things to start turning over. Financial conditions index has declined significantly, driven by higher yields, stronger dollar and increase in oil and energy costs. Discomfort is mostly caused by rates…
Macro Macro data remains inconsistent, with US remaining strong but global growth generally rolling over. Outside of US focus remains on the Chinese economy, with worrying decline in the households wealth (about 70% of which is linked to distressed property…
MACRO This week we had many headlines about risk of more sticky inflation caused by continuous wage growth. Investors are slowly loosing hope for return to easy monetary policy maintained for over a decade and start to see past years…
MACRO Macro picture is still focused on inflationary pressures and slowing growth as the estimate of US GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% for Q2 23. On the supply side there are many inputs which cannot be…
MACRO Financial health of a consumer is back in focus as the cumulative excess savings are in decline. If this excess savings turn negative, consumers will start to draw on credit, which with a current restrictive credit conditions and high…
MACRO This weeks macro focus was on slowing growth in China, and how this may affect global economy. US consumer still remains strong with shrinking but still reasonably large cash reserves (10.6% of total household assets), above the pre-covid cash…
