Macro Softer US employment and inflation data shifted expectations towards later Fed tightening, while European fiscal stress intensified. The implied probability of an October hike fell from approximately 64% to 23% over the week, although markets still priced roughly one…
Macro Stronger US activity reduced near-term slowdown risks while making the inflation challenge harder to resolve. September’s flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 from 56.0, with manufacturing and services both strengthening alongside new orders and employment. Business investment provided supporting…
Macro The Fed delivered the long-awaited return to tightening, reinforcing confidence that persistent inflation would ultimately take precedence over political pressure for lower rates. The widely anticipated 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% was the first increase since 2023 and, more importantly,…
Macro The Middle East energy shock moved from geopolitical risk premium toward physical supply disruption this week, while global activity remained surprisingly resilient. Brent rose 8.65% Friday-to-Friday from $96.28 to $104.61/bbl and reached $109.97 intraday, while WTI gained 9.37% to…
Macro Global growth remained resilient, led by a renewed acceleration in US activity, but the underlying labor data were firm rather than unequivocally inflationary. US payrolls increased by 162,000 in August against 55,000 expected, unemployment held at 4.1%, participation rose…
Macro The US growth-inflation mix deteriorated at the margin, although the apparent stickiness in PCE may overstate underlying inflation pressure. Core PCE rose to 3.34% YoY and headline PCE to 3.70%, while real consumption was flat, retail sales fell 0.6%…
Macro The global macro backdrop remained resilient but increasingly uneven, while the renewed Iran and Hormuz shock materially raised the inflation tail risk. Brent rose 6.6%, from $88.52 to $94.39/bbl, and briefly approached $95, after the US-Iran MOU expired on…
Macro The US data mix turned materially less hawkish. July payrolls fell 23k vs +80k expected, compounded by 103k of downward revisions to May/June; unemployment nevertheless fell to 4.1% vs 4.2% expected, partly reflecting weaker participation, while initial claims rose…
Rates Treasuries rallied across the curve, partially reversing the previous week’s post-FOMC selloff. The 2Y fell 9.6 bps to 4.20%, 5Y −9.7 bps to 4.354%, 10Y −9.0 bps to 4.65%, and 30Y −7.3 bps to 5.20%. The curve bull-steepened modestly,…
Macro US growth slowed further but continued to point to a late-cycle expansion rather than recession. Q2 GDP expanded 1.5% annualised, down from 2.1% in Q1 and below consensus, but the underlying composition remained considerably stronger than the headline. Consumer…
