Macro Hawkish Fed communication pushed December cut expectations back to essentially a coin flip, reversing the near certainty priced a month ago. Officials continue to stress caution, arguing that without reliable data, the bar for any near-term easing remains high.…
Macro Markets faced a challenging week as the U.S. government shutdown deepened, halting key data releases and complicating the policy outlook. The Supreme Court’s review of President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs added further uncertainty. Justices appeared…
Macro Global markets leaned toward a cautiously constructive tone as Washington and Beijing reached a limited truce and central-bank guidance softened slightly. The agreement eased near-term risks around tariffs and critical minerals, while monetary policy remained broadly supportive, though without…
Macro The global outlook brightened slightly last week as inflation pressures continued to ease and expectations for further monetary easing firmed. Investors welcomed another soft U.S. inflation reading and a wave of supportive policy signals from major central banks, even…
Macro Volatility has returned to Wall Street as markets face a convergence of risks, including rising U.S.–China trade tensions, historically expensive stocks, and growing strains in the credit market. After months of relative calm, price swings have increased across major…
Macro The most significant development this week was President Trump’s pledge to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and restrict exports of “critical software” starting November 1. The move was a direct response to Beijing’s decision to tighten export…
Macro The immigration growth in the U.S. is now one of the lowest in the last 80 years. For this reason, payroll numbers can be much lower to maintain low unemployment. Some measure that the monthly payroll number can be…
Macro Household spending rose more than expected in August, extending a three-month streak of solid gains and underscoring the resilience of U.S. consumers in the face of high borrowing costs and sticky inflation. The strength in personal outlays suggests that…
Macro On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve approved a 0.25 percentage point cut to its benchmark rate, lowering the federal funds range to 4.00%–4.25%, its first reduction in nine months. The move was widely anticipated and reflects growing concern over labour…
Macro Global politics and markets were once again shaped by rising geopolitical frictions and fiscal concerns. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping used a high-profile regional summit to advance his vision for a new, multipolar world order. Flanked by Russia’s Vladimir…
