Macro Tariff tensions are rising again as President Trump threatens a sweeping new round of trade measures targeting multiple countries, including Canada and Brazil. Despite these renewed threats, investor sentiment has remained surprisingly resilient—buoyed by solid U.S. economic data and…
Macro The U.S. economy continues to show resilience in the face of rising geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related headwinds. In June, the economy added 147,000 jobs, surpassing both the expected 110,000 and last year’s monthly average of 146,000. Adding to the…
Macro One-time tariffs are expected to be a transitory shock, similar to the supply chain disruptions experienced during the COVID pandemic. However, the pandemic taught us that supply shocks can have far more persistent effects than initially anticipated by economists,…
Macro Markets remained surprisingly calm despite significant geopolitical escalation over the weekend. Markets stayed calm after the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 and Iran retaliated with missiles targeting a U.S. base in Qatar on June 23, with…
Macro This week, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump’s tax and spending proposal, which increases the debt ceiling by USD 4 trillion and is projected to add between USD 3.8 trillion and USD 4.7 trillion to the national…
Macro U.S. consumer confidence, based on data collected before the recent US-China trade negotiations, has dropped to the second-lowest level on record. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s survey shows the 1-year inflation outlook spiking to 7.3%—a level not seen since…
Macro The FED held rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. What was unexpected was the lack of commitment to future cuts. The FED is ‘not in a hurry’ to cut but has warned about the growing risk of inflation…
Equities On Wednesday (30/04), Q1 GDP came in at -0.3% QoQ vs. -0.2% expected, marking the worst reading since Q1 2022 (-1%). The decline was driven by a surge in pent-up imports ahead of Trump’s tariff policy. A rebound is…
Macro In the first 100 days of his second term, Donald Trump’s presidency has had profound and destabilizing effects on the U.S. economy. His aggressive use of tariffs triggered significant market volatility, rattling both equity and bond markets. Investors, typically…
Macro It was a relatively light economic calendar this week. U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% in March, the most substantial gain since January 2023, driven largely by a surge in auto purchases likely accelerated by impending tariffs. However, control group…
