Karol Pelc

Rates Treasuries rallied across the curve, partially reversing the previous week’s post-FOMC selloff. The 2Y fell 9.6 bps to 4.20%, 5Y −9.7 bps to 4.354%, 10Y −9.0 bps to 4.65%, and 30Y −7.3 bps to 5.20%. The curve bull-steepened modestly,…

Macro US growth slowed further but continued to point to a late-cycle expansion rather than recession. Q2 GDP expanded 1.5% annualised, down from 2.1% in Q1 and below consensus, but the underlying composition remained considerably stronger than the headline. Consumer…

Macro The macro backdrop shifted towards a more stagflationary regime during the week as renewed Middle East tensions, higher energy prices and additional US tariffs reversed the recent disinflation narrative. Headline growth remains resilient, but increasingly concentrated in AI investment…

Macro The macro narrative became increasingly bifurcated this week. June inflation data reinforced the disinflation trend and pushed markets toward a less hawkish Fed outlook, while the sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict and surge in energy prices materially increased…

Macro The macro narrative shifted back toward inflation and geopolitics. Renewed US strikes against Iran and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices, inflation expectations and global yields higher, while reducing confidence in the disinflation path…

Macro The main macro development this week was the sharp reduction in geopolitical risk following the interim US-Iran agreement. The deal established a 60-day negotiation period, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, lifted naval blockades, and temporarily allowed Iran to resume…

Macro The macro narrative this week shifted from pure Iran-war risk toward a more complicated mix of geopolitical de-escalation hopes, sticky but moderating inflation, higher-for-longer central banks, and renewed frontier-tech exuberance. Trump again claimed that a peace deal with Iran…

Macro The dominant macro development this week was a significant reassessment of the US growth and policy outlook. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172K in May versus expectations near 90K, while upward revisions pushed average job creation over the past three…

Macro Increasing geopolitical fragmentation remains the dominant macro theme. Despite disruption to Gulf energy flows, the Russia-Ukraine war, rising fiscal pressures and ongoing supply-chain stress, developed-market growth has remained more resilient than expected, and risk assets continue to perform well.…

Macro The dominant macro theme remained the US-Iran conflict and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as markets increasingly abandoned the view that the disruption was temporary. After more than 80 days of disruption, investors have begun shifting…