Category Uncategorized

Macro Inflation data shows that prices are on a steady decline path, supporting the Fed’s easing case. Both PCE and PCE deflator are now almost reaching the level seen before the pandemic. On the other hand, strong spending and stable…

Macro A year ago, economists concluded that getting inflation under control would require a spike in unemployment and a recession. During the year, inflation has come down faster than the event in the most optimistic forecast, while the economy maintained…

Macro The FED has a chair with a very dovish message, and the committee members are walking it back. But even with J. Powell’s dovish tone, markets have been already well ahead of the FED. Bonds have rallied, and financial…

Macro This week, Jay Powell has surprised everyone and gave a festive giveaway to global markets. For the first time, he confirmed the assessment that the inflation is easing and going in the right direction. The meeting was mostly centred…

Macro Analysis of markets has been challenging as the economic models lost a large portion of their economic power due to the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. In addition, till October, we had ‘bear steepening’, which is very rare…

Macro … Pending … Rates End of the hiking cycle. The narrative has shifted away from higher for longer, and the market is rapidly recalibrating yields. The expectation is that rate cuts will start early next year, with FED funds…

Macro The US economy handled higher interest rates better than anyone anticipated despite multiple issues affecting the global economy. Although some restrictive monetary policy effects remain to be seen, the US remains an attractive destination for investors’ capital. The focus…

Macro Throughout the year US economy kept demonstrating its strength through continued strong economic growth. This has been achieved despite the rate-tightening cycle, but economists expect a slowdown in employment, which will have a negative impact on the GDP –…

Macro U.S. economy has proven to be consistently resilient in the face of many headwinds. US is a $25t economy, in 77% represented by services, and 68% represented by consumer which remains resilient. Question is how long would it last…

Macro Outside of the US, investors focus remains on changes taking place in the second largest economy. China has heavy debt burden while it’s population is shrinking and its productivity gains are slowing. Chinese cash reserves are expected to decline,…