MACRO US had already a few good quarters of growth after pandemic. Last quarter US had a significant growth in productivity, and most recent employment report shows modest increase in hours and payroll, which can indicate further boost in productivity. This is how we could have a strong labor market without pressure on inflation, which can secure soft landing, however most analysts haven’t taken at least a mild recession of…

MACRO We are in a new regime of higher global costs of capital and increased probability of tail risks due to intensified geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical fragmentation caused by competition between US and Chaina and emergence of the competing blocks, which is set to rewire global supply chain. This can also strengthen position of selected emerging and frontier economies which will be able to offer more politically stable and cheaper alternative.…