Week 45
Macro U.S. economy has proven to be consistently resilient in the face of many headwinds. US is a $25t economy, in 77% represented by services, and 68% represented by consumer which remains resilient. Question is how long would it last…
Karol Pelc
Week 44
Macro Outside of the US, investors focus remains on changes taking place in the second largest economy. China has heavy debt burden while it’s population is shrinking and its productivity gains are slowing. Chinese cash reserves are expected to decline,…
Week 43
Macro US GDP seasonally adjusted growth was at 4.9% annualized in the July-through-September period; biggest gain since Q4 2021. This unexpectedly strong reading is supported by increases in inventories, exports and governemnt spending, but most importantly by increase in the…
Week 42
MACRO Investors observe generally weakening global economic backdrop. This is a reflection of the rapid tightening cycle, which continues despite the softening global growth. There are fiscal concerns around growing deficits and increasing debt servicing costs caused by the higher…
Week 41
MACRO On the inflation front, we see overall more downward pressures. Over many months increases in rents had a significantly impact on the core inflation, given it’s over 40% weights in the index and steady increase of its contribution since…
Week 40
Macro Equity and bond prices took a hit on Tuesday, after reporting hot JOLTS data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). Available positions rose to 9.6m from under 8.9m (revised) in July, with little change to hirings (5.9m) and quit…
Week 39
MACRO Economy remain resilient but majority of economists are expecting things to start turning over. Financial conditions index has declined significantly, driven by higher yields, stronger dollar and increase in oil and energy costs. Discomfort is mostly caused by rates…
Week 38
Macro Macro data remains inconsistent, with US remaining strong but global growth generally rolling over. Outside of US focus remains on the Chinese economy, with worrying decline in the households wealth (about 70% of which is linked to distressed property…
Week 37
MACRO This week we had many headlines about risk of more sticky inflation caused by continuous wage growth. Investors are slowly loosing hope for return to easy monetary policy maintained for over a decade and start to see past years…
Week 36
MACRO Macro picture is still focused on inflationary pressures and slowing growth as the estimate of US GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% for Q2 23. On the supply side there are many inputs which cannot be…