Week 36
MACRO Macro picture is still focused on inflationary pressures and slowing growth as the estimate of US GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% for Q2 23. On the supply side there are many inputs which cannot be…
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Week 35
MACRO Financial health of a consumer is back in focus as the cumulative excess savings are in decline. If this excess savings turn negative, consumers will start to draw on credit, which with a current restrictive credit conditions and high…
Week 34
MACRO This weeks macro focus was on slowing growth in China, and how this may affect global economy. US consumer still remains strong with shrinking but still reasonably large cash reserves (10.6% of total household assets), above the pre-covid cash…
Week 33
MACRO US had already a few good quarters of growth after pandemic. Last quarter US had a significant growth in productivity, and most recent employment report shows modest increase in hours and payroll, which can indicate further boost in productivity.…
Week 32
MACRO We are in a new regime of higher global costs of capital and increased probability of tail risks due to intensified geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical fragmentation caused by competition between US and Chaina and emergence of the competing blocks, which…