Category Uncategorized

Macro The key driver for markets this week was the increase in the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. U.S. consumer spending rose in July at its fastest pace in four months, supported by solid income growth…

Macro Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled a potential rate cut in September during his Jackson Hole remarks, triggering a strong rally in equities, bonds, and even Bitcoin. The key key sentence in Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: “with policy…

Macro Consumer sentiment weakened for the first time since April, as rising inflation expectations unsettled markets despite otherwise solid retail data. The latest CPI and PPI prints deepened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move. July’s CPI came in broadly…

Macro This week’s data offered a mixed picture for the U.S. economy. The July ISM Services index came in below expectations, with the employment component sinking further into contraction territory while the prices index climbed to its highest level since…

Macro The July jobs report painted a much weaker picture of the U.S. labour market than previously thought, sparking concerns across financial markets. Markets responded swiftly: equities sold off, bonds rallied, and traders repriced expectations for Fed cuts, now anticipating…

Macro Recent U.S. economic data continue to show that Trump’s policies have yet to produce any meaningful impact on inflation or growth. The consensus expectation of an inflationary shock has not materialised. Inflation remains close to the Fed’s 2% target,…

Macro This week brought fresh trade headlines. Trump floated 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, while reports suggested he may push for a minimum 15–20% tariff level in future trade deals. Yet despite this tariff overhang, the economic data…

Macro Tariff tensions are rising again as President Trump threatens a sweeping new round of trade measures targeting multiple countries, including Canada and Brazil. Despite these renewed threats, investor sentiment has remained surprisingly resilient—buoyed by solid U.S. economic data and…

Macro The U.S. economy continues to show resilience in the face of rising geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related headwinds. In June, the economy added 147,000 jobs, surpassing both the expected 110,000 and last year’s monthly average of 146,000. Adding to the…

Macro One-time tariffs are expected to be a transitory shock, similar to the supply chain disruptions experienced during the COVID pandemic. However, the pandemic taught us that supply shocks can have far more persistent effects than initially anticipated by economists,…