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Macro The immigration growth in the U.S. is now one of the lowest in the last 80 years. For this reason, payroll numbers can be much lower to maintain low unemployment. Some measure that the monthly payroll number can be…

Macro Household spending rose more than expected in August, extending a three-month streak of solid gains and underscoring the resilience of U.S. consumers in the face of high borrowing costs and sticky inflation. The strength in personal outlays suggests that…

Macro On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve approved a 0.25 percentage point cut to its benchmark rate, lowering the federal funds range to 4.00%–4.25%, its first reduction in nine months. The move was widely anticipated and reflects growing concern over labour…

Macro Global politics and markets were once again shaped by rising geopolitical frictions and fiscal concerns. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping used a high-profile regional summit to advance his vision for a new, multipolar world order. Flanked by Russia’s Vladimir…

Macro The key driver for markets this week was the increase in the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. U.S. consumer spending rose in July at its fastest pace in four months, supported by solid income growth…

Macro Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled a potential rate cut in September during his Jackson Hole remarks, triggering a strong rally in equities, bonds, and even Bitcoin. The key key sentence in Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: “with policy…

Macro Consumer sentiment weakened for the first time since April, as rising inflation expectations unsettled markets despite otherwise solid retail data. The latest CPI and PPI prints deepened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move. July’s CPI came in broadly…

Macro This week’s data offered a mixed picture for the U.S. economy. The July ISM Services index came in below expectations, with the employment component sinking further into contraction territory while the prices index climbed to its highest level since…

Macro The July jobs report painted a much weaker picture of the U.S. labour market than previously thought, sparking concerns across financial markets. Markets responded swiftly: equities sold off, bonds rallied, and traders repriced expectations for Fed cuts, now anticipating…

Macro Recent U.S. economic data continue to show that Trump’s policies have yet to produce any meaningful impact on inflation or growth. The consensus expectation of an inflationary shock has not materialised. Inflation remains close to the Fed’s 2% target,…