Macro The past two weeks reinforced a defining feature of the current macro regime: geopolitics now feeds directly into economic expectations, even when headline risks fade quickly. The tariff standoff linked to Greenland de-escalated, but the episode highlighted how trade…
Macro Macro discussion this week was driven more by policy sequencing than data surprises, with several cross-currents converging. In the US, markets were fully prepared for a 25bp Fed cut, leaving the focus on Powell’s framing, the dot plot, and…
Macro U.S. labour market data may be overstating underlying strength at a time when hiring momentum has already slowed materially. With reported job gains now close to stall speed, even relatively small statistical distortions can turn apparent growth into outright…
Macro The BLS has now confirmed that there will be no October CPI or jobs report, and that the November CPI (18-Dec) and November payrolls (16-Dec) will be released after the December FOMC meeting. The Fed, therefore, enters one of…
Macro Hawkish Fed communication pushed December cut expectations back to essentially a coin flip, reversing the near certainty priced a month ago. Officials continue to stress caution, arguing that without reliable data, the bar for any near-term easing remains high.…
Macro Markets faced a challenging week as the U.S. government shutdown deepened, halting key data releases and complicating the policy outlook. The Supreme Court’s review of President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs added further uncertainty. Justices appeared…
Macro Global markets leaned toward a cautiously constructive tone as Washington and Beijing reached a limited truce and central-bank guidance softened slightly. The agreement eased near-term risks around tariffs and critical minerals, while monetary policy remained broadly supportive, though without…
Macro The global outlook brightened slightly last week as inflation pressures continued to ease and expectations for further monetary easing firmed. Investors welcomed another soft U.S. inflation reading and a wave of supportive policy signals from major central banks, even…
Macro Volatility has returned to Wall Street as markets face a convergence of risks, including rising U.S.–China trade tensions, historically expensive stocks, and growing strains in the credit market. After months of relative calm, price swings have increased across major…
Macro The most significant development this week was President Trump’s pledge to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and restrict exports of “critical software” starting November 1. The move was a direct response to Beijing’s decision to tighten export…
