Macro The global macro backdrop remains defined by a widening divergence between resilient headline activity and a rapidly deteriorating underlying structure, as the energy shock from the Iran conflict continues to propagate through inflation, trade, and policy channels. U.S. growth…
Macro The macro backdrop is increasingly defined by a tightening constraint set between resilient growth, persistent inflation and limited policy flexibility. Incoming data continue to argue against recession, with U.S. labour conditions holding and payroll growth (~68K/month YTD) still sufficient…
Macro The macro backdrop this week was defined by a widening gap between what markets were pricing and what the physical economy was still dealing with. U.S. activity remained resilient enough to support the expansion narrative, with initial jobless claims…
Macro Macro conditions continue to deteriorate at the margin, with the Iran conflict now clearly feeding through into growth, inflation and confidence channels. The IMF is set to downgrade its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.3%, reinforcing the shift from…
Macro Geopolitics dominated the macro narrative this week, with the Iran conflict driving both inflation expectations and cross-asset positioning and introducing extreme headline volatility. Market sentiment oscillated between early optimism around a potential de-escalation, driven by signals that the U.S.…
Macro The macro story this week was an energy shock colliding with a still-positive but clearly slowing U.S. economy. The Iran conflict remained the dominant driver of cross-asset pricing. Early hopes of de-escalation after Trump cited “productive” discussions and delayed…
Macro The FED maintained its policy rate target at 3.50–3.75% at the March meeting (2026-03-18), but the overall signal shifted marginally more hawkish. The decision passed 11–1, with one dissenter favouring a rate cut, while the broader communication emphasised a continued wait-and-see approach…
Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an economy that is still expanding, but with a more fragile and uneven growth profile emerging beneath the surface. Business surveys remain in expansion, with ISM services at 56.1 and manufacturing holding…
Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an overall resilient economy but are becoming increasingly uneven across sectors. Business surveys still indicate ongoing expansion, with ISM manufacturing at 50.7 in February and new orders rising to 55.8, while ISM…
Macro Recent U.S. data continue to suggest a gradually cooling but still resilient economy, though divergence across sectors and income groups is becoming more visible. ADP private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February, signalling continued, though moderate, labour market resilience.…
