Macro The FED maintained its policy rate target at 3.50–3.75% at the March meeting (2026-03-18), but the overall signal shifted marginally more hawkish. The decision passed 11–1, with one dissenter favouring a rate cut, while the broader communication emphasised a continued wait-and-see approach…
Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an economy that is still expanding, but with a more fragile and uneven growth profile emerging beneath the surface. Business surveys remain in expansion, with ISM services at 56.1 and manufacturing holding…
Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an overall resilient economy but are becoming increasingly uneven across sectors. Business surveys still indicate ongoing expansion, with ISM manufacturing at 50.7 in February and new orders rising to 55.8, while ISM…
Macro Recent U.S. data continue to suggest a gradually cooling but still resilient economy, though divergence across sectors and income groups is becoming more visible. ADP private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February, signalling continued, though moderate, labour market resilience.…
Macro The defining shift in the current macro regime is not the level of rates, but the change in the FED’s reaction function. At the January 27–28 meeting, the FOMC held the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The tone, however, is…
Growth is holding, inflation is moderating, and the labour market remains resilient; yet the composition of the data continues to matter more than the headline figure. January CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, down from 2.7% previously. Core CPI…
Macro The past two weeks reinforced a defining feature of the current macro regime: geopolitics now feeds directly into economic expectations, even when headline risks fade quickly. The tariff standoff linked to Greenland de-escalated, but the episode highlighted how trade…
Macro Macro discussion this week was driven more by policy sequencing than data surprises, with several cross-currents converging. In the US, markets were fully prepared for a 25bp Fed cut, leaving the focus on Powell’s framing, the dot plot, and…
Macro U.S. labour market data may be overstating underlying strength at a time when hiring momentum has already slowed materially. With reported job gains now close to stall speed, even relatively small statistical distortions can turn apparent growth into outright…
Macro The BLS has now confirmed that there will be no October CPI or jobs report, and that the November CPI (18-Dec) and November payrolls (16-Dec) will be released after the December FOMC meeting. The Fed, therefore, enters one of…
