Are we in a recession yet?
While the rule of thumb indicates recession as two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP, many institutions look also into other variables to confirm economic downturn. This usually includes consumer and business spending, industrial production and labour market. Current situation is widely recognized by experts as a ‘technical recession’ that is likely to turn into a real recession event over the next few months. Here are few key reasons this may occur: Preceding Economic Overheating Conditions Economists agree that overheating suggests a very high probability of recession (Alex Domash, Lawrence H. Summers, 13 April 2022 link). There are many…