Macro This week’s data offered a mixed picture for the U.S. economy. The July ISM Services index came in below expectations, with the employment component sinking further into contraction territory while the prices index climbed to its highest level since…
Macro The July jobs report painted a much weaker picture of the U.S. labour market than previously thought, sparking concerns across financial markets. Markets responded swiftly: equities sold off, bonds rallied, and traders repriced expectations for Fed cuts, now anticipating…
Macro Recent U.S. economic data continue to show that Trump’s policies have yet to produce any meaningful impact on inflation or growth. The consensus expectation of an inflationary shock has not materialised. Inflation remains close to the Fed’s 2% target,…
Macro This week brought fresh trade headlines. Trump floated 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, while reports suggested he may push for a minimum 15–20% tariff level in future trade deals. Yet despite this tariff overhang, the economic data…
Macro Tariff tensions are rising again as President Trump threatens a sweeping new round of trade measures targeting multiple countries, including Canada and Brazil. Despite these renewed threats, investor sentiment has remained surprisingly resilient—buoyed by solid U.S. economic data and…
Macro The U.S. economy continues to show resilience in the face of rising geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related headwinds. In June, the economy added 147,000 jobs, surpassing both the expected 110,000 and last year’s monthly average of 146,000. Adding to the…
Macro One-time tariffs are expected to be a transitory shock, similar to the supply chain disruptions experienced during the COVID pandemic. However, the pandemic taught us that supply shocks can have far more persistent effects than initially anticipated by economists,…
Macro Markets remained surprisingly calm despite significant geopolitical escalation over the weekend. Markets stayed calm after the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 and Iran retaliated with missiles targeting a U.S. base in Qatar on June 23, with…
Macro This week, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump’s tax and spending proposal, which increases the debt ceiling by USD 4 trillion and is projected to add between USD 3.8 trillion and USD 4.7 trillion to the national…
Macro U.S. consumer confidence, based on data collected before the recent US-China trade negotiations, has dropped to the second-lowest level on record. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s survey shows the 1-year inflation outlook spiking to 7.3%—a level not seen since…
