Week 49
Macro Analysis of markets has been challenging as the economic models lost a large portion of their economic power due to the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. In addition, till October, we had ‘bear steepening’, which is very rare…
Investor
Week 48
Macro … Pending … Rates End of the hiking cycle. The narrative has shifted away from higher for longer, and the market is rapidly recalibrating yields. The expectation is that rate cuts will start early next year, with FED funds…
Week 47
Macro The US economy handled higher interest rates better than anyone anticipated despite multiple issues affecting the global economy. Although some restrictive monetary policy effects remain to be seen, the US remains an attractive destination for investors’ capital. The focus…
Week 46
Macro Throughout the year US economy kept demonstrating its strength through continued strong economic growth. This has been achieved despite the rate-tightening cycle, but economists expect a slowdown in employment, which will have a negative impact on the GDP –…
Week 45
Macro U.S. economy has proven to be consistently resilient in the face of many headwinds. US is a $25t economy, in 77% represented by services, and 68% represented by consumer which remains resilient. Question is how long would it last…
Week 44
Macro Outside of the US, investors focus remains on changes taking place in the second largest economy. China has heavy debt burden while it’s population is shrinking and its productivity gains are slowing. Chinese cash reserves are expected to decline,…
Week 43
Macro US GDP seasonally adjusted growth was at 4.9% annualized in the July-through-September period; biggest gain since Q4 2021. This unexpectedly strong reading is supported by increases in inventories, exports and governemnt spending, but most importantly by increase in the…
Week 42
MACRO Investors observe generally weakening global economic backdrop. This is a reflection of the rapid tightening cycle, which continues despite the softening global growth. There are fiscal concerns around growing deficits and increasing debt servicing costs caused by the higher…
Week 41
MACRO On the inflation front, we see overall more downward pressures. Over many months increases in rents had a significantly impact on the core inflation, given it’s over 40% weights in the index and steady increase of its contribution since…
Week 40
Macro Equity and bond prices took a hit on Tuesday, after reporting hot JOLTS data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). Available positions rose to 9.6m from under 8.9m (revised) in July, with little change to hirings (5.9m) and quit…