Karol Pelc

Macro The FED held rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. What was unexpected was the lack of commitment to future cuts. The FED is ‘not in a hurry’ to cut but has warned about the growing risk of inflation…

Equities On Wednesday (30/04), Q1 GDP came in at -0.3% QoQ vs. -0.2% expected, marking the worst reading since Q1 2022 (-1%). The decline was driven by a surge in pent-up imports ahead of Trump’s tariff policy. A rebound is…

Macro In the first 100 days of his second term, Donald Trump’s presidency has had profound and destabilizing effects on the U.S. economy. His aggressive use of tariffs triggered significant market volatility, rattling both equity and bond markets. Investors, typically…

Macro It was a relatively light economic calendar this week. U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% in March, the most substantial gain since January 2023, driven largely by a surge in auto purchases likely accelerated by impending tariffs. However, control group…

Macro The U.S. has launched an aggressive tariff regime that dwarfs the historical Smoot-Hawley tariffs in both scope and economic impact. What makes this shift even more consequential is that today’s U.S. economy is three times more integrated into global…

Macro This week marked a pivotal moment for global markets. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs sent shockwaves through the economy, while the latest jobs data revealed both strength and underlying fragility. With inflation concerns mounting and recession risks rising, markets…

Macro The February Core PCE rose 0.37% month-over-month, pushing the annualized rate to 2.79%. The increase was driven by price pressures in goods and non-housing services, even as shelter inflation continued to moderate. Earlier in March, a softer CPI report…

Macro The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady against a backdrop of an increasingly uncertain economic outlook. While this decision was expected, it also provided relief to markets that the Fed did not rush to conclusions. Markets responded positively…

Macro Inflation is moderating, yet consumer anxiety persists, raising long-term inflation expectations. While tariffs typically have negative implications for both growth and inflation, analysts are currently placing greater emphasis on potential impacts on economic growth. Increased concern about an economic…

Macro Growing concerns about economic growth have increased the frequency with which economists discuss the possibility of a recession. Recessions are not typically triggered by a single catastrophic event; rather, they are often the culmination of a period during which…