Macro The upside surprise to US payrolls has sent yields higher and counterbalanced the rate cuts. The Nonfarm Payrolls released on Friday came in hot at 256K compared to the consensus range of 150K-160K 165K (91K above 165K expectations). The…
Macro January typically does not benefit much from seasonal adjustments, but we should see some cooling in inflation in the following months. This expected easing is due to a softening job market, stabilizing shelter costs, and cooling auto insurance prices,…
Macro This Christmas week has been relatively quiet, with minimal market movement and limited economic news. Investors are now focusing on the upcoming year, with growth remaining a key concern. Reducing the Federal Funds Rate is expected to create a…
Macro The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was the week’s key event. Contrary to analysts’ strong expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut and signals of a potential pause in future cuts, the meeting was perceived as…
Macro Investor macro analysis is heavily influenced by U.S. politics, centered on the presidential transition and cabinet appointments. Concerns persist over potential destabilization stemming from efforts to “dismantle the deep state,” which includes the intelligence community, defense establishment, and broader…
Macro The U.S. economy delivered mixed signals. Initial jobless claims fell for the third consecutive week, but continuing claims rose to a three-year high. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index returned to contraction, but the composite PMI reached its highest level…
Macro Initial jobless claims in the United States fell by 6,000 to 213K, beating expectations of 220K and reaching their lowest level since April. At the same time, however, continuing claims rose by 36K to 1.91 million, the largest increase…
Macro This week, the market has been digesting the first rate cut of the current cycle. The Fed began its easing with a jumbo 50 basis point cut, managing to avoid spooking the market. While the market had priced in…
Macro Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments and updated interest rate forecasts aim to reinforce a “Goldilocks” narrative—suggesting that economic conditions are neither too hot nor too cold while inflation continues moving in the right direction. The big question for…
Macro This week’s economic developments were driven by the August payroll report, which missed expectations for job growth, while the unemployment rate was better than anticipated. The market now treats “bad news as bad news,” with caution reflecting a potential…
