Macro Growing concerns about economic growth have increased the frequency with which economists discuss the possibility of a recession. Recessions are not typically triggered by a single catastrophic event; rather, they are often the culmination of a period during which…
Macro U.S. employers are projected to add 160,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate at 4%. This represents a modest improvement over the 143,000 jobs added in January amid federal government layoffs and a slowdown in consumer spending. The…
Macro Although inflation has started to cool, consumers’ long-term inflation expectations have risen to a 30-year high. This unexpected increase is driven by heightened inflation concerns and rising prices for specific goods that significantly affect consumers. Surprisingly, despite elevated inflation…
Macro This week was marked by high-profile events, including pivotal elections in Germany, Powell’s congressional testimony, and Trump’s tariffs, which further contributed to the overall sense of uncertainty in global markets. Recent U.S. retail sales data pushed Treasury yields lower,…
Macro January payrolls showed a slowdown in job growth, a slight wage increase of 0.5% and an increase in the participation rate. Payrolls rose by 143K vs the expected 175K. Additionally, revisions to recent employment data showed that job gains…
Macro The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, noting that inflation continues to be “somewhat elevated”. The Federal Reserve’s statement was somewhat hawkish, revealing cautious optimism about achieving inflation and employment targets.…
Macro This year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, themed “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age,” convened amid rising geopolitical tensions and a rapid push to lead in artificial intelligence. Participants highlighted AI’s immense promise to benefit society as a whole but…
The Core CPI declined for the first time in six months, shifting expectations for rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields lower, and triggering a rally in risk assets. The December results showed signs of inflation moderation. According to the Bureau of…
Macro The upside surprise to US payrolls has sent yields higher and counterbalanced the rate cuts. The Nonfarm Payrolls released on Friday came in hot at 256K compared to the consensus range of 150K-160K 165K (91K above 165K expectations). The…
Macro January typically does not benefit much from seasonal adjustments, but we should see some cooling in inflation in the following months. This expected easing is due to a softening job market, stabilizing shelter costs, and cooling auto insurance prices,…
