Category Uncategorized

Macro This week’s macro focus was on U.S. unemployment, non-farm payrolls, and the impact of the Bank of Japan’s decision to hike rates to 0.25%, covered in the rates segment. Let’s start with the key numbers for the U.S. labour…

Macro On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the U.S. economy grew 2.8% in Q2. This strong growth surpassed expectations of 2% and Q1 growth of 1.4%. At first glance, it confirms sustainably strong demand and consumer resilience.…

Macro FED’s preferred inflation gauge – Core PCE is expected to end the year at 2.6%. J. Powell said 3 inflation prints from the second quarter added confidence that the inflation rate is moving toward the FED’s target. As inflation…

Macro PPI came slightly hotter than expected. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2024 reported an annual inflation rate of 3.0%, indicating continued moderation from the previous months​. While food prices increased by 2.2%, energy prices saw mixed…

Macro Friday’s payrolls show gains of 206k (vs. 188k estimate), a touch stronger than 190k expected. Cyclical employment has only risen by 55k, as 70k of the increase comes from government jobs and 82k from healthcare and private assistance. However,…

Macro Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure, which strips out volatile food and energy items) rose by just 0.08% in May, the least since late 2020. Wages rose by 0.7% and real disposable income by 0.5%, while savings rates rose by 3.9%.…

Macro Year-over-year (YoY) Consumer Price Index (CPI) has not reached a new low in the past year, bottoming out at 3% a year ago. Persistent inflation results from robust growth and a tightening cycle without even a soft recession. While…

Macro The US economy has demonstrated exceptional resilience in the face of aggressive monetary tightening. This is further underscored by the emergence of increased productivity and the early signs of an economic boost from AI. While the US maintains its…

Macro US payroll came stronger than expected (272,000 vs 190,000 expected), sending yields up and rate cut expectations further away into December. Also, The unemployment rate derived from the Household Survey conducted by BLS (the Bureau of Labor Statistics) stayed…

Macro This week, risk assets came under pressure as Wednesday’s CPI report exceeded expectations, marking 3rd increase in a row. Since the FED is facing three reports now, it will be easier to argue for the rate cuts before the…