Macro … Pending … Rates End of the hiking cycle. The narrative has shifted away from higher for longer, and the market is rapidly recalibrating yields. The expectation is that rate cuts will start early next year, with FED funds futures now pricing a 60% chance of a 25 bps cut in March. It is also possible that the FED will start cutting later in the year but cut more…

Macro The US economy handled higher interest rates better than anyone anticipated despite multiple issues affecting the global economy. Although some restrictive monetary policy effects remain to be seen, the US remains an attractive destination for investors’ capital. The focus of the weekly update is more tactical, but it is worth acknowledging a few strategic changes that helped the US equity market to dominate the returns of any other region…

Macro Throughout the year US economy kept demonstrating its strength through continued strong economic growth. This has been achieved despite the rate-tightening cycle, but economists expect a slowdown in employment, which will have a negative impact on the GDP – a key determinant of the return on capital. Analysts expect that the boost to productivity produced by AI implementations will be at least enough to offset the slowing employment, with…

Macro U.S. economy has proven to be consistently resilient in the face of many headwinds. US is a $25t economy, in 77% represented by services, and 68% represented by consumer which remains resilient. Question is how long would it last given shrinking savings. Source: FT Consumer demand is also continued to be supported by demand for workers and healthy labour market. Job growth given comsumers confidence to excesively spend. However…

Macro Outside of the US, investors focus remains on changes taking place in the second largest economy. China has heavy debt burden while it’s population is shrinking and its productivity gains are slowing. Chinese cash reserves are expected to decline, as aging population will start spending their savings. Urbanization rate has slowed significantly, and the real estate market is in decline since last year (and for the first time since…

Macro US GDP seasonally adjusted growth was at 4.9% annualized in the July-through-September period; biggest gain since Q4 2021. This unexpectedly strong reading is supported by increases in inventories, exports and governemnt spending, but most importantly by increase in the consumer spending. Consumer’s went on the shoping spree in the last months of summer which had an outside impact, as consumer was responsible for about 68% of GDP in Q3.…