Macro The immigration growth in the U.S. is now one of the lowest in the last 80 years. For this reason, payroll numbers can be much lower to maintain low unemployment. Some measure that the monthly payroll number can be as low as 20 to 25K to maintain the unemployment rate. The government shutdown has kept markets in a catalyst vacuum this week, but optimism held on to broader expectations…

Macro Household spending rose more than expected in August, extending a three-month streak of solid gains and underscoring the resilience of U.S. consumers in the face of high borrowing costs and sticky inflation. The strength in personal outlays suggests that third-quarter growth is approaching 4%, following an upwardly revised second quarter that marked the fastest expansion in nearly two years. August new-home sales climbed to their best level since early…

Macro On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve approved a 0.25 percentage point cut to its benchmark rate, lowering the federal funds range to 4.00%–4.25%, its first reduction in nine months. The move was widely anticipated and reflects growing concern over labour market softness, even as inflation remains elevated. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 in favour, with Governor Stephen Miran, a recent appointee, dissenting in support of a larger half-point…

Macro Global politics and markets were once again shaped by rising geopolitical frictions and fiscal concerns. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping used a high-profile regional summit to advance his vision for a new, multipolar world order. Flanked by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un during a grand military parade marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan, Xi projected China as an alternative power centre to the…

Macro The key driver for markets this week was the increase in the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. U.S. consumer spending rose in July at its fastest pace in four months, supported by solid income growth despite persistent price pressures. While households remain resilient, the outlook is becoming increasingly uncertain as job growth slows and inflation expectations edge higher. Core PCE climbed to 2.9% year-over-year, its…

Macro Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled a potential rate cut in September during his Jackson Hole remarks, triggering a strong rally in equities, bonds, and even Bitcoin. The key key sentence in Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” Powell emphasised that the balance of risks has shifted, suggesting the Fed…