Macro This week’s data offered a mixed picture for the U.S. economy. The July ISM Services index came in below expectations, with the employment component sinking further into contraction territory while the prices index climbed to its highest level since October 2022. The NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed inflation expectations moving higher, with the 1-year outlook up 10 bps to 3.0% and the 5-year up 30 bps to…

Macro The July jobs report painted a much weaker picture of the U.S. labour market than previously thought, sparking concerns across financial markets. Markets responded swiftly: equities sold off, bonds rallied, and traders repriced expectations for Fed cuts, now anticipating two reductions this year. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, while underemployment reached 7.9%. Job growth was narrowly concentrated, with 79,000 new positions in private education and healthcare, while…

Macro Recent U.S. economic data continue to show that Trump’s policies have yet to produce any meaningful impact on inflation or growth. The consensus expectation of an inflationary shock has not materialised. Inflation remains close to the Fed’s 2% target, while activity indicators suggest continued strength, with recent business surveys showing the fastest pace of private-sector expansion this year. Even before measurable inflationary effects appear, tariff revenues have already begun…

Macro This week brought fresh trade headlines. Trump floated 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, while reports suggested he may push for a minimum 15–20% tariff level in future trade deals. Yet despite this tariff overhang, the economic data remain resilient: jobless claims, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and regional Fed surveys all beat expectations. Consumer sentiment also improved, and inflation expectations continued to ease, albeit remaining above…

Macro Tariff tensions are rising again as President Trump threatens a sweeping new round of trade measures targeting multiple countries, including Canada and Brazil. Despite these renewed threats, investor sentiment has remained surprisingly resilient—buoyed by solid U.S. economic data and expectations of continued growth. Markets appear to have moved past peak uncertainty and are now pricing in a relatively healthy mix of growth, disinflation, and monetary policy normalisation. While tariffs…

Macro The U.S. economy continues to show resilience in the face of rising geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related headwinds. In June, the economy added 147,000 jobs, surpassing both the expected 110,000 and last year’s monthly average of 146,000. Adding to the strength of the report, April and May payrolls were both revised higher by 16,000, reinforcing the momentum in the labour market. Importantly, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, defying expectations…