Macro The macro backdrop is increasingly defined by a tightening constraint set between resilient growth, persistent inflation and limited policy flexibility. Incoming data continue to argue against recession, with U.S. labour conditions holding and payroll growth (~68K/month YTD) still sufficient to stabilise unemployment given the lower breakeven threshold. However, the distribution of outcomes has widened materially. Growth remains intact, but risks have shifted decisively toward inflation persistence, with supply-side shocks…

Macro The macro backdrop this week was defined by a widening gap between what markets were pricing and what the physical economy was still dealing with. U.S. activity remained resilient enough to support the expansion narrative, with initial jobless claims falling to 207K and bank commentary continuing to describe credit demand and consumer conditions as broadly intact. China’s Q1 GDP printed at 5.0% YoY, above expectations, while the euro area…

Macro Macro conditions continue to deteriorate at the margin, with the Iran conflict now clearly feeding through into growth, inflation and confidence channels. The IMF is set to downgrade its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.3%, reinforcing the shift from a modest early-year recovery toward a more fragile, shock-driven regime. Policy guidance remains cautious, with central banks signalling patience and prioritising inflation expectations over immediate reaction to the energy shock.…

Macro Geopolitics dominated the macro narrative this week, with the Iran conflict driving both inflation expectations and cross-asset positioning and introducing extreme headline volatility. Market sentiment oscillated between early optimism around a potential de-escalation, driven by signals that the U.S. may be willing to accept a partial resolution without a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed concern following a more aggressive shift in rhetoric later in the…

Macro The macro story this week was an energy shock colliding with a still-positive but clearly slowing U.S. economy. The Iran conflict remained the dominant driver of cross-asset pricing. Early hopes of de-escalation after Trump cited “productive” discussions and delayed strikes on Iranian energy sites gave way to renewed scepticism as Tehran denied direct talks and markets increasingly treated diplomacy as fragile rather than decisive. Oil moved back above psychologically…

Macro The FED maintained its policy rate target at 3.50–3.75% at the March meeting (2026-03-18), but the overall signal shifted marginally more hawkish. The decision passed 11–1, with one dissenter favouring a rate cut, while the broader communication emphasised a continued wait-and-see approach amid rising external uncertainty. Updated projections showed 2026 GDP revised up to 2.4% and PCE inflation marked higher to 2.7% (core 2.7%), with unemployment unchanged at 4.4%, reinforcing the view…