Macro The macro backdrop deteriorated further as markets increasingly shifted from pricing geopolitical tail risk toward pricing sustained energy, inflation and supply-chain disruption. Investors no longer treated the Iran shock as temporary. Brent remained above $100/bbl for most of the week, while the back end of global yield curves repriced materially higher, signalling growing acceptance that disruption risks may persist well beyond the immediate military phase. Importantly, markets increasingly recognise…

Macro The macro backdrop remained resilient but increasingly uneven, with the April payroll report reinforcing the “stable, not overheating” narrative. The key macro data point was another resilient but uneven U.S. labour report. Nonfarm payrolls rose 115K versus expectations near 65K, the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and wage growth stayed contained at 0.2% m/m and 3.6% y Beneath the surface, however, the report reinforced a “low-hire, low-fire” equilibrium rather…

Macro The global macro backdrop remains defined by a widening divergence between resilient headline activity and a rapidly deteriorating underlying structure, as the energy shock from the Iran conflict continues to propagate through inflation, trade, and policy channels. U.S. growth remains superficially robust, with Q1 GDP at 2.0% annualised, but this strength is increasingly concentrated in AI-related investment. Estimates suggest ~1.5% of that growth came directly from AI capex, with…

Macro The macro backdrop is increasingly defined by a tightening constraint set between resilient growth, persistent inflation and limited policy flexibility. Incoming data continue to argue against recession, with U.S. labour conditions holding and payroll growth (~68K/month YTD) still sufficient to stabilise unemployment given the lower breakeven threshold. However, the distribution of outcomes has widened materially. Growth remains intact, but risks have shifted decisively toward inflation persistence, with supply-side shocks…

Macro The macro backdrop this week was defined by a widening gap between what markets were pricing and what the physical economy was still dealing with. U.S. activity remained resilient enough to support the expansion narrative, with initial jobless claims falling to 207K and bank commentary continuing to describe credit demand and consumer conditions as broadly intact. China’s Q1 GDP printed at 5.0% YoY, above expectations, while the euro area…

Macro Macro conditions continue to deteriorate at the margin, with the Iran conflict now clearly feeding through into growth, inflation and confidence channels. The IMF is set to downgrade its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.3%, reinforcing the shift from a modest early-year recovery toward a more fragile, shock-driven regime. Policy guidance remains cautious, with central banks signalling patience and prioritising inflation expectations over immediate reaction to the energy shock.…