Macro The macro story this week was an energy shock colliding with a still-positive but clearly slowing U.S. economy. The Iran conflict remained the dominant driver of cross-asset pricing. Early hopes of de-escalation after Trump cited “productive” discussions and delayed strikes on Iranian energy sites gave way to renewed scepticism as Tehran denied direct talks and markets increasingly treated diplomacy as fragile rather than decisive. Oil moved back above psychologically…

Macro The FED maintained its policy rate target at 3.50–3.75% at the March meeting (2026-03-18), but the overall signal shifted marginally more hawkish. The decision passed 11–1, with one dissenter favouring a rate cut, while the broader communication emphasised a continued wait-and-see approach amid rising external uncertainty. Updated projections showed 2026 GDP revised up to 2.4% and PCE inflation marked higher to 2.7% (core 2.7%), with unemployment unchanged at 4.4%, reinforcing the view…

Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an economy that is still expanding, but with a more fragile and uneven growth profile emerging beneath the surface. Business surveys remain in expansion, with ISM services at 56.1 and manufacturing holding above 50, suggesting activity has not rolled over despite tighter financial conditions. At the same time, incoming data has become more mixed. Personal income and consumption both rose in January;…

Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an overall resilient economy but are becoming increasingly uneven across sectors. Business surveys still indicate ongoing expansion, with ISM manufacturing at 50.7 in February and new orders rising to 55.8, while ISM services climbed to 56.1, its strongest reading since mid-2022. Taken together, the data suggest growth has not rolled over despite tighter financial conditions, though activity is becoming more sensitive to…

Macro Recent U.S. data continue to suggest a gradually cooling but still resilient economy, though divergence across sectors and income groups is becoming more visible. ADP private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February, signalling continued, though moderate, labour market resilience. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book highlights this uneven backdrop, with seven districts reporting slight to moderate growth while five reporting flat or declining activity, suggesting an economy increasingly operating at…

Macro The defining shift in the current macro regime is not the level of rates, but the change in the FED’s reaction function. At the January 27–28 meeting, the FOMC held the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The tone, however, is more symmetric. Inflation progress is acknowledged as uneven, cuts remain possible, but the hurdle is higher, and the committee appears more willing to pause for longer if needed. The easing…