Macro US growth slowed further but continued to point to a late-cycle expansion rather than recession. Q2 GDP expanded 1.5% annualised, down from 2.1% in Q1 and below consensus, but the underlying composition remained considerably stronger than the headline. Consumer spending rose 3.2%; real personal consumption increased 0.4% MoM in June; initial jobless claims fell to 197k; and unemployment edged down to 4.2%, indicating labour-market conditions remained inconsistent with a…

Macro The macro backdrop shifted towards a more stagflationary regime during the week as renewed Middle East tensions, higher energy prices and additional US tariffs reversed the recent disinflation narrative. Headline growth remains resilient, but increasingly concentrated in AI investment and higher-income consumption, while rising inflation risks have shifted the focus of central banks from easing towards preserving inflation-fighting credibility. A temporary 48-hour pause in US military action against Iran…

Macro The macro narrative became increasingly bifurcated this week. June inflation data reinforced the disinflation trend and pushed markets toward a less hawkish Fed outlook, while the sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict and surge in energy prices materially increased the risk of renewed inflationary pressure over the coming months. Disruption across the Gulf and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz prompted markets to rebuild a geopolitical risk premium,…

Macro The macro narrative shifted back toward inflation and geopolitics. Renewed US strikes against Iran and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices, inflation expectations and global yields higher, while reducing confidence in the disinflation path that had emerged during Q2. The June FOMC minutes showed a divided committee, with some officials willing to consider further tightening if inflation fails to moderate. Subsequent Fed commentary remained…

Macro The main macro development this week was the sharp reduction in geopolitical risk following the interim US-Iran agreement. The deal established a 60-day negotiation period, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, lifted naval blockades, and temporarily allowed Iran to resume oil exports. With roughly 160 million barrels of crude previously trapped in the Gulf expected to re-enter global markets, investors rapidly repriced the risk of a prolonged energy shock. Beyond…

Macro The macro narrative this week shifted from pure Iran-war risk toward a more complicated mix of geopolitical de-escalation hopes, sticky but moderating inflation, higher-for-longer central banks, and renewed frontier-tech exuberance. Trump again claimed that a peace deal with Iran could be signed “in the coming days,” and oil fell sharply after he cancelled planned retaliatory strikes. Front-month WTI dropped to $85.05/bbl, down 5.8% w/w, while Brent fell to $87.81/bbl,…