Macro Macro discussion this week was driven more by policy sequencing than data surprises, with several cross-currents converging. In the US, markets were fully prepared for a 25bp Fed cut, leaving the focus on Powell’s framing, the dot plot, and the credibility of a glide path toward neutral in 2026. While the decision delivered on market expectations, the vote split was notable, reinforcing internal debate over the pace of easing.…

Macro U.S. labour market data may be overstating underlying strength at a time when hiring momentum has already slowed materially. With reported job gains now close to stall speed, even relatively small statistical distortions can turn apparent growth into outright job losses, raising the risk that labour conditions are weaker than headline figures suggest. Model-based estimates used to account for business formation and closures have added to this uncertainty and…

Macro The BLS has now confirmed that there will be no October CPI or jobs report, and that the November CPI (18-Dec) and November payrolls (16-Dec) will be released after the December FOMC meeting. The Fed, therefore, enters one of the most consequential decisions of the year with no fresh inflation or unemployment data, leaving policymakers unusually dependent on partial indicators and internal models. The most complete labour information available…

Macro Hawkish Fed communication pushed December cut expectations back to essentially a coin flip, reversing the near certainty priced a month ago. Officials continue to stress caution, arguing that without reliable data, the bar for any near-term easing remains high. The shutdown has created a genuine data desert. October prints will be noisy or incomplete, and some underlying collections, especially in labour and price surveys, may be partially unrecoverable. As…

Macro Markets faced a challenging week as the U.S. government shutdown deepened, halting key data releases and complicating the policy outlook. The Supreme Court’s review of President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs added further uncertainty. Justices appeared sceptical of the administration’s legal basis, raising the risk that a ruling against the President could unsettle trade policy. A potential refund of previously collected tariffs could offer a short-term…

Macro Global markets leaned toward a cautiously constructive tone as Washington and Beijing reached a limited truce and central-bank guidance softened slightly. The agreement eased near-term risks around tariffs and critical minerals, while monetary policy remained broadly supportive, though without a clear commitment to further cuts. U.S.–China relations improved marginally after talks in Busan. Beijing agreed to delay new rare-earth export restrictions for one year, reducing short-term supply concerns for…