Macro Volatility has returned to Wall Street as markets face a convergence of risks, including rising U.S.–China trade tensions, historically expensive stocks, and growing strains in the credit market. After months of relative calm, price swings have increased across major indices as investors reassess the durability of the U.S. expansion. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell captured the policy dilemma in remarks on Tuesday, noting that “there is no risk-free path…

Macro The most significant development this week was President Trump’s pledge to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and restrict exports of “critical software” starting November 1. The move was a direct response to Beijing’s decision to tighten export controls on rare-earth materials and strategic inputs vital to semiconductor and defence supply chains. The announcement sent shockwaves through global markets, causing the worst sell-off since the liberation day. For…

Macro The immigration growth in the U.S. is now one of the lowest in the last 80 years. For this reason, payroll numbers can be much lower to maintain low unemployment. Some measure that the monthly payroll number can be as low as 20 to 25K to maintain the unemployment rate. The government shutdown has kept markets in a catalyst vacuum this week, but optimism held on to broader expectations…

Macro Household spending rose more than expected in August, extending a three-month streak of solid gains and underscoring the resilience of U.S. consumers in the face of high borrowing costs and sticky inflation. The strength in personal outlays suggests that third-quarter growth is approaching 4%, following an upwardly revised second quarter that marked the fastest expansion in nearly two years. August new-home sales climbed to their best level since early…

Macro On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve approved a 0.25 percentage point cut to its benchmark rate, lowering the federal funds range to 4.00%–4.25%, its first reduction in nine months. The move was widely anticipated and reflects growing concern over labour market softness, even as inflation remains elevated. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 in favour, with Governor Stephen Miran, a recent appointee, dissenting in support of a larger half-point…

Macro Global politics and markets were once again shaped by rising geopolitical frictions and fiscal concerns. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping used a high-profile regional summit to advance his vision for a new, multipolar world order. Flanked by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un during a grand military parade marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan, Xi projected China as an alternative power centre to the…