Macro Recent U.S. economic data continue to show that Trump’s policies have yet to produce any meaningful impact on inflation or growth. The consensus expectation of an inflationary shock has not materialised. Inflation remains close to the Fed’s 2% target, while activity indicators suggest continued strength, with recent business surveys showing the fastest pace of private-sector expansion this year. Even before measurable inflationary effects appear, tariff revenues have already begun…

Macro This week brought fresh trade headlines. Trump floated 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, while reports suggested he may push for a minimum 15–20% tariff level in future trade deals. Yet despite this tariff overhang, the economic data remain resilient: jobless claims, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and regional Fed surveys all beat expectations. Consumer sentiment also improved, and inflation expectations continued to ease, albeit remaining above…

Macro Tariff tensions are rising again as President Trump threatens a sweeping new round of trade measures targeting multiple countries, including Canada and Brazil. Despite these renewed threats, investor sentiment has remained surprisingly resilient—buoyed by solid U.S. economic data and expectations of continued growth. Markets appear to have moved past peak uncertainty and are now pricing in a relatively healthy mix of growth, disinflation, and monetary policy normalisation. While tariffs…

Macro The U.S. economy continues to show resilience in the face of rising geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related headwinds. In June, the economy added 147,000 jobs, surpassing both the expected 110,000 and last year’s monthly average of 146,000. Adding to the strength of the report, April and May payrolls were both revised higher by 16,000, reinforcing the momentum in the labour market. Importantly, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, defying expectations…

Macro One-time tariffs are expected to be a transitory shock, similar to the supply chain disruptions experienced during the COVID pandemic. However, the pandemic taught us that supply shocks can have far more persistent effects than initially anticipated by economists, sometimes lasting years. The Federal Reserve is now cautiously assessing whether tariffs will generate such lasting disruptions. If not, and if the tariff-driven supply shock proves to be short-lived, much…

Macro Markets remained surprisingly calm despite significant geopolitical escalation over the weekend. Markets stayed calm after the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 and Iran retaliated with missiles targeting a U.S. base in Qatar on June 23, with neither action hitting energy infrastructure, prompting oil prices to drop over 7.2%, with Brent closing around $71.5 and WTI at $68.5 per barrel. Global equities edged higher while energy shares…