Equities On Wednesday (30/04), Q1 GDP came in at -0.3% QoQ vs. -0.2% expected, marking the worst reading since Q1 2022 (-1%). The decline was driven by a surge in pent-up imports ahead of Trump’s tariff policy. A rebound is expected in Q2 as imports normalise, but Q3 and Q4 may face distortions. Prediction markets (Polymarket) now assign a 65% recession probability this year. The Fed, however, still projects 1.7%…

Macro In the first 100 days of his second term, Donald Trump’s presidency has had profound and destabilizing effects on the U.S. economy. His aggressive use of tariffs triggered significant market volatility, rattling both equity and bond markets. Investors, typically drawn to U.S. Treasuries during periods of risk, instead shifted assets toward safer foreign currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, signaling a loss of confidence. As a result, the…

Macro It was a relatively light economic calendar this week. U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% in March, the most substantial gain since January 2023, driven largely by a surge in auto purchases likely accelerated by impending tariffs. However, control group sales disappointed, and the boost is seen as temporary. Other data showed mixed signals: housing starts dropped 11.4% to an eight-month low, and industrial production declined 0.3%, weighed down by…

Macro The U.S. has launched an aggressive tariff regime that dwarfs the historical Smoot-Hawley tariffs in both scope and economic impact. What makes this shift even more consequential is that today’s U.S. economy is three times more integrated into global trade than it was in 1930. These new tariffs, applied unevenly across countries and products, have created a chaotic business environment in which companies are unable to make informed investment…

Macro This week marked a pivotal moment for global markets. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs sent shockwaves through the economy, while the latest jobs data revealed both strength and underlying fragility. With inflation concerns mounting and recession risks rising, markets now face a high-stakes reset. Here’s what you need to know. U.S. employers added 228,000 jobs last month, beating all forecasts despite downward revisions to previous months. The jobless rate…

Macro The February Core PCE rose 0.37% month-over-month, pushing the annualized rate to 2.79%. The increase was driven by price pressures in goods and non-housing services, even as shelter inflation continued to moderate. Earlier in March, a softer CPI report raised hopes that inflation might ease without aggressive Fed tightening. However, those hopes were dented by the PCE release, which failed to confirm a consistent disinflation trend. Further compounding concerns,…