Macro Increasing geopolitical fragmentation remains the dominant macro theme. Despite disruption to Gulf energy flows, the Russia-Ukraine war, rising fiscal pressures and ongoing supply-chain stress, developed-market growth has remained more resilient than expected, and risk assets continue to perform well. The global economy remains increasingly bifurcated between AI-driven investment strength and a consumer sector facing higher fuel, food, freight and borrowing costs. Consensus expectations remain cautious. A recent survey of…

Macro The dominant macro theme remained the US-Iran conflict and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as markets increasingly abandoned the view that the disruption was temporary. After more than 80 days of disruption, investors have begun shifting from a “headline risk” framework toward a “persistent supply shock” framework. Brent crude traded around $110, and WTI around $106-108 during the week, as concerns grew that strategic reserves, commercial…

Macro The macro backdrop deteriorated further as markets increasingly shifted from pricing geopolitical tail risk toward pricing sustained energy, inflation and supply-chain disruption. Investors no longer treated the Iran shock as temporary. Brent remained above $100/bbl for most of the week, while the back end of global yield curves repriced materially higher, signalling growing acceptance that disruption risks may persist well beyond the immediate military phase. Importantly, markets increasingly recognise…

Macro The macro backdrop remained resilient but increasingly uneven, with the April payroll report reinforcing the “stable, not overheating” narrative. The key macro data point was another resilient but uneven U.S. labour report. Nonfarm payrolls rose 115K versus expectations near 65K, the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and wage growth stayed contained at 0.2% m/m and 3.6% y Beneath the surface, however, the report reinforced a “low-hire, low-fire” equilibrium rather…

Macro The global macro backdrop remains defined by a widening divergence between resilient headline activity and a rapidly deteriorating underlying structure, as the energy shock from the Iran conflict continues to propagate through inflation, trade, and policy channels. U.S. growth remains superficially robust, with Q1 GDP at 2.0% annualised, but this strength is increasingly concentrated in AI-related investment. Estimates suggest ~1.5% of that growth came directly from AI capex, with…

Macro The macro backdrop is increasingly defined by a tightening constraint set between resilient growth, persistent inflation and limited policy flexibility. Incoming data continue to argue against recession, with U.S. labour conditions holding and payroll growth (~68K/month YTD) still sufficient to stabilise unemployment given the lower breakeven threshold. However, the distribution of outcomes has widened materially. Growth remains intact, but risks have shifted decisively toward inflation persistence, with supply-side shocks…