Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an economy that is still expanding, but with a more fragile and uneven growth profile emerging beneath the surface. Business surveys remain in expansion, with ISM services at 56.1 and manufacturing holding above 50, suggesting activity has not rolled over despite tighter financial conditions. At the same time, incoming data has become more mixed. Personal income and consumption both rose in January;…

Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an overall resilient economy but are becoming increasingly uneven across sectors. Business surveys still indicate ongoing expansion, with ISM manufacturing at 50.7 in February and new orders rising to 55.8, while ISM services climbed to 56.1, its strongest reading since mid-2022. Taken together, the data suggest growth has not rolled over despite tighter financial conditions, though activity is becoming more sensitive to…

Macro Recent U.S. data continue to suggest a gradually cooling but still resilient economy, though divergence across sectors and income groups is becoming more visible. ADP private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February, signalling continued, though moderate, labour market resilience. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book highlights this uneven backdrop, with seven districts reporting slight to moderate growth while five reporting flat or declining activity, suggesting an economy increasingly operating at…

Macro The defining shift in the current macro regime is not the level of rates, but the change in the FED’s reaction function. At the January 27–28 meeting, the FOMC held the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The tone, however, is more symmetric. Inflation progress is acknowledged as uneven, cuts remain possible, but the hurdle is higher, and the committee appears more willing to pause for longer if needed. The easing…

Growth is holding, inflation is moderating, and the labour market remains resilient; yet the composition of the data continues to matter more than the headline figure. January CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, down from 2.7% previously. Core CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year. Energy, particularly gasoline, was a key contributor to the softer headline inflation, while overall goods inflation remained contained. However, service categories persist, keeping core measures elevated…

Macro The past two weeks reinforced a defining feature of the current macro regime: geopolitics now feeds directly into economic expectations, even when headline risks fade quickly. The tariff standoff linked to Greenland de-escalated, but the episode highlighted how trade policy, security commitments, and political credibility are increasingly intertwined. That message was amplified at Davos, where discussions broadly converged on the idea that the post-Cold War, U.S.-led economic order is…