Macro Markets faced a challenging week as the U.S. government shutdown deepened, halting key data releases and complicating the policy outlook. The Supreme Court’s review of President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs added further uncertainty. Justices appeared sceptical of the administration’s legal basis, raising the risk that a ruling against the President could unsettle trade policy. A potential refund of previously collected tariffs could offer a short-term…

Macro Global markets leaned toward a cautiously constructive tone as Washington and Beijing reached a limited truce and central-bank guidance softened slightly. The agreement eased near-term risks around tariffs and critical minerals, while monetary policy remained broadly supportive, though without a clear commitment to further cuts. U.S.–China relations improved marginally after talks in Busan. Beijing agreed to delay new rare-earth export restrictions for one year, reducing short-term supply concerns for…

Macro The global outlook brightened slightly last week as inflation pressures continued to ease and expectations for further monetary easing firmed. Investors welcomed another soft U.S. inflation reading and a wave of supportive policy signals from major central banks, even as trade tensions and political uncertainty remained in focus. In the United States, September inflation rose less than expected, confirming that disinflation remains on track. Headline CPI increased 3.0% year-on-year,…

Macro Volatility has returned to Wall Street as markets face a convergence of risks, including rising U.S.–China trade tensions, historically expensive stocks, and growing strains in the credit market. After months of relative calm, price swings have increased across major indices as investors reassess the durability of the U.S. expansion. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell captured the policy dilemma in remarks on Tuesday, noting that “there is no risk-free path…

Macro The most significant development this week was President Trump’s pledge to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and restrict exports of “critical software” starting November 1. The move was a direct response to Beijing’s decision to tighten export controls on rare-earth materials and strategic inputs vital to semiconductor and defence supply chains. The announcement sent shockwaves through global markets, causing the worst sell-off since the liberation day. For…

Macro The immigration growth in the U.S. is now one of the lowest in the last 80 years. For this reason, payroll numbers can be much lower to maintain low unemployment. Some measure that the monthly payroll number can be as low as 20 to 25K to maintain the unemployment rate. The government shutdown has kept markets in a catalyst vacuum this week, but optimism held on to broader expectations…