Macro Investor macro analysis is heavily influenced by U.S. politics, centered on the presidential transition and cabinet appointments. Concerns persist over potential destabilization stemming from efforts to “dismantle the deep state,” which includes the intelligence community, defense establishment, and broader bureaucracy. However, optimism surrounds the prospects of deregulation and reduced government intervention, which could enhance efficiency and improve fiscal discipline. Resolving international conflicts is also a priority, with potential to…

Macro The U.S. economy delivered mixed signals. Initial jobless claims fell for the third consecutive week, but continuing claims rose to a three-year high. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index returned to contraction, but the composite PMI reached its highest level since April 2022, buoyed by strength in services. Housing data painted a mixed picture: October housing starts missed expectations, partly due to weather, but NAHB sentiment climbed to a seven-month…

Macro Initial jobless claims in the United States fell by 6,000 to 213K, beating expectations of 220K and reaching their lowest level since April. At the same time, however, continuing claims rose by 36K to 1.91 million, the largest increase in three years, suggesting that overall demand for workers may be softening. Despite this mixed signal, the labor market remains relatively strong. The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, and job…

Macro This week, the market has been digesting the first rate cut of the current cycle. The Fed began its easing with a jumbo 50 basis point cut, managing to avoid spooking the market. While the market had priced in nearly a two-thirds chance of a 50 bps cut the day before, the size still surprised some observers. With the first cut set at 50 bps, the probability of a…

Macro Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments and updated interest rate forecasts aim to reinforce a “Goldilocks” narrative—suggesting that economic conditions are neither too hot nor too cold while inflation continues moving in the right direction. The big question for the upcoming week is whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points (bps). The market is debating this first cut and trying to confirm if…

Macro This week’s economic developments were driven by the August payroll report, which missed expectations for job growth, while the unemployment rate was better than anticipated. The market now treats “bad news as bad news,” with caution reflecting a potential shift. A key issue is that economic slowdowns often start from strong levels, making distinguishing between a soft and hard landing difficult. Early on, job creation and wage growth may…