Macro Inflation broadened beyond energy, increasing pressure on household purchasing power. US September CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month, lifting annual inflation to 3.7%; core prices increased 0.3%, above the 0.2% consensus, with three-month annualised momentum reaching approximately 3.4%. Gasoline drove more than half the headline increase, but core goods, shelter and other services also firmed. Producer prices rose 1.3% against expectations of 0.6%, the strongest increase since March 2022. Transportation and…

Macro The global expansion remains resilient, but rising energy and transport costs are making growth more inflationary while narrowing the scope for policy support. This week’s evidence points to continued US activity, uneven household demand across Asia and mounting fiscal constraints in Europe. The IMF highlighted the interaction between the negative energy-supply shock and strong AI-related investment demand: the former reduces purchasing power, while the latter supports activity but adds…

Macro Softer US employment and inflation data shifted expectations towards later Fed tightening, while European fiscal stress intensified. The implied probability of an October hike fell from approximately 64% to 23% over the week, although markets still priced roughly one additional 25bp increase by December. September payrolls rose just 29k against 90k expected, with downward revisions bringing the three-month average to 51k. Nevertheless, unemployment at 4.2% remained within its recent…

Macro Stronger US activity reduced near-term slowdown risks while making the inflation challenge harder to resolve. September’s flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 from 56.0, with manufacturing and services both strengthening alongside new orders and employment. Business investment provided supporting evidence: August core capital goods orders increased 1.6% month-on-month and shipments rose 0.6%, suggesting the improvement extends beyond surveys. Initial jobless claims below 200,000 also indicated limited deterioration in employment.…

Macro The Fed delivered the long-awaited return to tightening, reinforcing confidence that persistent inflation would ultimately take precedence over political pressure for lower rates. The widely anticipated 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% was the first increase since 2023 and, more importantly, received unanimous FOMC support, strengthening the signal of institutional independence. The economic justification had broadened beyond the energy shock: August core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY, while retail…

Macro The Middle East energy shock moved from geopolitical risk premium toward physical supply disruption this week, while global activity remained surprisingly resilient. Brent rose 8.65% Friday-to-Friday from $96.28 to $104.61/bbl and reached $109.97 intraday, while WTI gained 9.37% to $100.05. Iranian exports remain a fraction of their pre-war 1.5-1.7 mb/d level, Saudi Arabia closed the East-West pipeline after drone attacks from Iraq, Hormuz remains under active military contest, and…