Macro Macro conditions continue to deteriorate at the margin, with the Iran conflict now clearly feeding through into growth, inflation and confidence channels. The IMF is set to downgrade its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.3%, reinforcing the shift from a modest early-year recovery toward a more fragile, shock-driven regime. Policy guidance remains cautious, with central banks signalling patience and prioritising inflation expectations over immediate reaction to the energy shock.…
Macro Geopolitics dominated the macro narrative this week, with the Iran conflict driving both inflation expectations and cross-asset positioning and introducing extreme headline volatility. Market sentiment oscillated between early optimism around a potential de-escalation, driven by signals that the U.S. may be willing to accept a partial resolution without a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed concern following a more aggressive shift in rhetoric later in the…
Macro The macro story this week was an energy shock colliding with a still-positive but clearly slowing U.S. economy. The Iran conflict remained the dominant driver of cross-asset pricing. Early hopes of de-escalation after Trump cited “productive” discussions and delayed strikes on Iranian energy sites gave way to renewed scepticism as Tehran denied direct talks and markets increasingly treated diplomacy as fragile rather than decisive. Oil moved back above psychologically…
Macro The FED maintained its policy rate target at 3.50–3.75% at the March meeting (2026-03-18), but the overall signal shifted marginally more hawkish. The decision passed 11–1, with one dissenter favouring a rate cut, while the broader communication emphasised a continued wait-and-see approach amid rising external uncertainty. Updated projections showed 2026 GDP revised up to 2.4% and PCE inflation marked higher to 2.7% (core 2.7%), with unemployment unchanged at 4.4%, reinforcing the view…
Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an economy that is still expanding, but with a more fragile and uneven growth profile emerging beneath the surface. Business surveys remain in expansion, with ISM services at 56.1 and manufacturing holding above 50, suggesting activity has not rolled over despite tighter financial conditions. At the same time, incoming data has become more mixed. Personal income and consumption both rose in January;…
Macro Recent U.S. data continue to point to an overall resilient economy but are becoming increasingly uneven across sectors. Business surveys still indicate ongoing expansion, with ISM manufacturing at 50.7 in February and new orders rising to 55.8, while ISM services climbed to 56.1, its strongest reading since mid-2022. Taken together, the data suggest growth has not rolled over despite tighter financial conditions, though activity is becoming more sensitive to…
