Macro The macro narrative shifted back toward inflation and geopolitics. Renewed US strikes against Iran and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices, inflation expectations and global yields higher, while reducing confidence in the disinflation path that had emerged during Q2. The June FOMC minutes showed a divided committee, with some officials willing to consider further tightening if inflation fails to moderate. Subsequent Fed commentary remained…

Macro The main macro development this week was the sharp reduction in geopolitical risk following the interim US-Iran agreement. The deal established a 60-day negotiation period, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, lifted naval blockades, and temporarily allowed Iran to resume oil exports. With roughly 160 million barrels of crude previously trapped in the Gulf expected to re-enter global markets, investors rapidly repriced the risk of a prolonged energy shock. Beyond…

Macro The macro narrative this week shifted from pure Iran-war risk toward a more complicated mix of geopolitical de-escalation hopes, sticky but moderating inflation, higher-for-longer central banks, and renewed frontier-tech exuberance. Trump again claimed that a peace deal with Iran could be signed “in the coming days,” and oil fell sharply after he cancelled planned retaliatory strikes. Front-month WTI dropped to $85.05/bbl, down 5.8% w/w, while Brent fell to $87.81/bbl,…

Macro The dominant macro development this week was a significant reassessment of the US growth and policy outlook. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172K in May versus expectations near 90K, while upward revisions pushed average job creation over the past three months to roughly 188K per month, the strongest stretch in more than two years. Hiring broadened across manufacturing, construction, restaurants and government, while ISM Manufacturing rose to 54.0, its highest…

Macro Increasing geopolitical fragmentation remains the dominant macro theme. Despite disruption to Gulf energy flows, the Russia-Ukraine war, rising fiscal pressures and ongoing supply-chain stress, developed-market growth has remained more resilient than expected, and risk assets continue to perform well. The global economy remains increasingly bifurcated between AI-driven investment strength and a consumer sector facing higher fuel, food, freight and borrowing costs. Consensus expectations remain cautious. A recent survey of…

Macro The dominant macro theme remained the US-Iran conflict and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as markets increasingly abandoned the view that the disruption was temporary. After more than 80 days of disruption, investors have begun shifting from a “headline risk” framework toward a “persistent supply shock” framework. Brent crude traded around $110, and WTI around $106-108 during the week, as concerns grew that strategic reserves, commercial…