Macro Recent U.S. data continue to suggest a gradually cooling but still resilient economy, though divergence across sectors and income groups is becoming more visible. ADP private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February, signalling continued, though moderate, labour market resilience. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book highlights this uneven backdrop, with seven districts reporting slight to moderate growth while five reporting flat or declining activity, suggesting an economy increasingly operating at…

Macro The defining shift in the current macro regime is not the level of rates, but the change in the FED’s reaction function. At the January 27–28 meeting, the FOMC held the policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The tone, however, is more symmetric. Inflation progress is acknowledged as uneven, cuts remain possible, but the hurdle is higher, and the committee appears more willing to pause for longer if needed. The easing…

Growth is holding, inflation is moderating, and the labour market remains resilient; yet the composition of the data continues to matter more than the headline figure. January CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, down from 2.7% previously. Core CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year. Energy, particularly gasoline, was a key contributor to the softer headline inflation, while overall goods inflation remained contained. However, service categories persist, keeping core measures elevated…

Macro The past two weeks reinforced a defining feature of the current macro regime: geopolitics now feeds directly into economic expectations, even when headline risks fade quickly. The tariff standoff linked to Greenland de-escalated, but the episode highlighted how trade policy, security commitments, and political credibility are increasingly intertwined. That message was amplified at Davos, where discussions broadly converged on the idea that the post-Cold War, U.S.-led economic order is…

Macro Macro discussion this week was driven more by policy sequencing than data surprises, with several cross-currents converging. In the US, markets were fully prepared for a 25bp Fed cut, leaving the focus on Powell’s framing, the dot plot, and the credibility of a glide path toward neutral in 2026. While the decision delivered on market expectations, the vote split was notable, reinforcing internal debate over the pace of easing.…

Macro U.S. labour market data may be overstating underlying strength at a time when hiring momentum has already slowed materially. With reported job gains now close to stall speed, even relatively small statistical distortions can turn apparent growth into outright job losses, raising the risk that labour conditions are weaker than headline figures suggest. Model-based estimates used to account for business formation and closures have added to this uncertainty and…