Week 38
Macro This week, the market has been digesting the first rate cut of the current cycle. The Fed began its easing with a jumbo 50 basis point cut, managing to avoid spooking the market. While the market had priced in…
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Week 37
Macro Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments and updated interest rate forecasts aim to reinforce a “Goldilocks” narrative—suggesting that economic conditions are neither too hot nor too cold while inflation continues moving in the right direction. The big question for…
Week 36
Macro This week’s economic developments were driven by the August payroll report, which missed expectations for job growth, while the unemployment rate was better than anticipated. The market now treats “bad news as bad news,” with caution reflecting a potential…
Week 35
Macro This week, we had normalization of the macro numbers, with GDP revised upward, an uptick in consumer sentiment alongside a slight rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This week’s key economic releases included: The GDP growth estimate…
Week 34
Macro Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole on Friday and BLS payrolls benchmark revision on Wednesday were the week’s highlights. Jackson Hall symposium is vital as the central bankers from around the world will discuss progress on the inflation front, which…
Week 33
Macro In July, headline and core CPI eased for the fourth consecutive month, with year-over-year rates dipping to 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively. The 3-month moving average fell to an annualized 1.58%, its lowest point over three years. However, the overall…
Week 32
Macro This week, the market has dealt with tremendous volatility, most of which was a repercussion of the Bank of Japan’s previous week’s decision (Wednesday, 31st of July) to hike for the second time in 17 years and bring interest…
Week 31
Macro This week’s macro focus was on U.S. unemployment, non-farm payrolls, and the impact of the Bank of Japan’s decision to hike rates to 0.25%, covered in the rates segment. Let’s start with the key numbers for the U.S. labour…
Week 30
Macro On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the U.S. economy grew 2.8% in Q2. This strong growth surpassed expectations of 2% and Q1 growth of 1.4%. At first glance, it confirms sustainably strong demand and consumer resilience.…
Week 29
Macro FED’s preferred inflation gauge – Core PCE is expected to end the year at 2.6%. J. Powell said 3 inflation prints from the second quarter added confidence that the inflation rate is moving toward the FED’s target. As inflation…