MACRO Economy remain resilient but majority of economists are expecting things to start turning over. Financial conditions index has declined significantly, driven by higher yields, stronger dollar and increase in oil and energy costs. Discomfort is mostly caused by rates…
Macro Macro data remains inconsistent, with US remaining strong but global growth generally rolling over. Outside of US focus remains on the Chinese economy, with worrying decline in the households wealth (about 70% of which is linked to distressed property…
MACRO This week we had many headlines about risk of more sticky inflation caused by continuous wage growth. Investors are slowly loosing hope for return to easy monetary policy maintained for over a decade and start to see past years…
MACRO Macro picture is still focused on inflationary pressures and slowing growth as the estimate of US GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% for Q2 23. On the supply side there are many inputs which cannot be…
MACRO Financial health of a consumer is back in focus as the cumulative excess savings are in decline. If this excess savings turn negative, consumers will start to draw on credit, which with a current restrictive credit conditions and high…
MACRO This weeks macro focus was on slowing growth in China, and how this may affect global economy. US consumer still remains strong with shrinking but still reasonably large cash reserves (10.6% of total household assets), above the pre-covid cash…
MACRO US had already a few good quarters of growth after pandemic. Last quarter US had a significant growth in productivity, and most recent employment report shows modest increase in hours and payroll, which can indicate further boost in productivity.…
MACRO We are in a new regime of higher global costs of capital and increased probability of tail risks due to intensified geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical fragmentation caused by competition between US and Chaina and emergence of the competing blocks, which…
