Macro The US economy has demonstrated exceptional resilience in the face of aggressive monetary tightening. This is further underscored by the emergence of increased productivity and the early signs of an economic boost from AI. While the US maintains its…
Macro US payroll came stronger than expected (272,000 vs 190,000 expected), sending yields up and rate cut expectations further away into December. Also, The unemployment rate derived from the Household Survey conducted by BLS (the Bureau of Labor Statistics) stayed…
Macro This week, risk assets came under pressure as Wednesday’s CPI report exceeded expectations, marking 3rd increase in a row. Since the FED is facing three reports now, it will be easier to argue for the rate cuts before the…
Macro The US labour market remains very strong, with this week’s payroll report reflecting 303,000 jobs added in March (vs 214k estimated), with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings (MoM) as expected at 3.8% and 0.3%, respectively. Such a…
Macro The FED evaluates the optimal inflation rate and the policy path to achieve it. It is trying to prioritize the labour market over the noisy inflation data, as it didn’t change its December projections and committed to 3 rate…
Macro Last week, we discussed hot payroll numbers with cool wages and a strong but perhaps moderating economy. This week, we have received another hotter-than-expected inflation print, but investors still expect three rate cuts this year, with the first one…
Macro On Friday, we had the latest US job numbers with a downward revision for February to 275k (ahead of the 200k estimate). However, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9% (expected 3.7%), a new two-year high. Average hourly earnings increased…
Macro The US economy is not slowing down, and most point to the increases in budget deficit and fiscal stimulus from debt overlay, which kept going for the last four years. Some go as far as to say that since…
Macro After every major economic shock or recession, people tend to become more conservative, more price-sensitive and economically cautious, and they tend to save more. However, after the COVID, it was the opposite. People locked at home increased their good…
Macro Based on all upcoming macro data, the FED is highly unlikely to cut rates as much as the market expects. CPI and PCE reported this week that they are falling but above expectations. Most of the resilience in inflation…
