Macro It was a relatively light economic calendar this week. U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% in March, the most substantial gain since January 2023, driven largely by a surge in auto purchases likely accelerated by impending tariffs. However, control group…
Macro The U.S. has launched an aggressive tariff regime that dwarfs the historical Smoot-Hawley tariffs in both scope and economic impact. What makes this shift even more consequential is that today’s U.S. economy is three times more integrated into global…
Macro This week marked a pivotal moment for global markets. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs sent shockwaves through the economy, while the latest jobs data revealed both strength and underlying fragility. With inflation concerns mounting and recession risks rising, markets…
Macro The February Core PCE rose 0.37% month-over-month, pushing the annualized rate to 2.79%. The increase was driven by price pressures in goods and non-housing services, even as shelter inflation continued to moderate. Earlier in March, a softer CPI report…
Macro The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady against a backdrop of an increasingly uncertain economic outlook. While this decision was expected, it also provided relief to markets that the Fed did not rush to conclusions. Markets responded positively…
Macro Inflation is moderating, yet consumer anxiety persists, raising long-term inflation expectations. While tariffs typically have negative implications for both growth and inflation, analysts are currently placing greater emphasis on potential impacts on economic growth. Increased concern about an economic…
Macro Growing concerns about economic growth have increased the frequency with which economists discuss the possibility of a recession. Recessions are not typically triggered by a single catastrophic event; rather, they are often the culmination of a period during which…
Macro U.S. employers are projected to add 160,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate at 4%. This represents a modest improvement over the 143,000 jobs added in January amid federal government layoffs and a slowdown in consumer spending. The…
Macro Although inflation has started to cool, consumers’ long-term inflation expectations have risen to a 30-year high. This unexpected increase is driven by heightened inflation concerns and rising prices for specific goods that significantly affect consumers. Surprisingly, despite elevated inflation…
Macro This week was marked by high-profile events, including pivotal elections in Germany, Powell’s congressional testimony, and Trump’s tariffs, which further contributed to the overall sense of uncertainty in global markets. Recent U.S. retail sales data pushed Treasury yields lower,…
