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Macro Based on all upcoming macro data, the FED is highly unlikely to cut rates as much as the market expects. CPI and PCE reported this week that they are falling but above expectations. Most of the resilience in inflation…

Macro There are worries that “the last mile will be the hardest” in the inflation battle and that, historically, inflation spikes are coming in wavers. We have to be cognizant of the inflation acceleration risks, but the fear that inflation…

Macro Blockbuster US Jobs Report gives a surprisingly strong start to 2024, showing that the labour market remains remarkably resilient. The payroll report nearly doubled economists’ forecast (185k), adding 353k jobs in January, and significantly revised December’s number from 216k…

Macro Inflation data shows that prices are on a steady decline path, supporting the Fed’s easing case. Both PCE and PCE deflator are now almost reaching the level seen before the pandemic. On the other hand, strong spending and stable…

Macro A year ago, economists concluded that getting inflation under control would require a spike in unemployment and a recession. During the year, inflation has come down faster than the event in the most optimistic forecast, while the economy maintained…

Macro The FED has a chair with a very dovish message, and the committee members are walking it back. But even with J. Powell’s dovish tone, markets have been already well ahead of the FED. Bonds have rallied, and financial…

Macro This week, Jay Powell has surprised everyone and gave a festive giveaway to global markets. For the first time, he confirmed the assessment that the inflation is easing and going in the right direction. The meeting was mostly centred…

Macro Analysis of markets has been challenging as the economic models lost a large portion of their economic power due to the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. In addition, till October, we had ‘bear steepening’, which is very rare…

Macro … Pending … Rates End of the hiking cycle. The narrative has shifted away from higher for longer, and the market is rapidly recalibrating yields. The expectation is that rate cuts will start early next year, with FED funds…

Macro The US economy handled higher interest rates better than anyone anticipated despite multiple issues affecting the global economy. Although some restrictive monetary policy effects remain to be seen, the US remains an attractive destination for investors’ capital. The focus…