Macro Last week, we discussed hot payroll numbers with cool wages and a strong but perhaps moderating economy. This week, we have received another hotter-than-expected inflation print, but investors still expect three rate cuts this year, with the first one…
Macro On Friday, we had the latest US job numbers with a downward revision for February to 275k (ahead of the 200k estimate). However, the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9% (expected 3.7%), a new two-year high. Average hourly earnings increased…
Macro The US economy is not slowing down, and most point to the increases in budget deficit and fiscal stimulus from debt overlay, which kept going for the last four years. Some go as far as to say that since…
Macro After every major economic shock or recession, people tend to become more conservative, more price-sensitive and economically cautious, and they tend to save more. However, after the COVID, it was the opposite. People locked at home increased their good…
Macro Based on all upcoming macro data, the FED is highly unlikely to cut rates as much as the market expects. CPI and PCE reported this week that they are falling but above expectations. Most of the resilience in inflation…
Macro There are worries that “the last mile will be the hardest” in the inflation battle and that, historically, inflation spikes are coming in wavers. We have to be cognizant of the inflation acceleration risks, but the fear that inflation…
Macro Blockbuster US Jobs Report gives a surprisingly strong start to 2024, showing that the labour market remains remarkably resilient. The payroll report nearly doubled economists’ forecast (185k), adding 353k jobs in January, and significantly revised December’s number from 216k…
Macro Inflation data shows that prices are on a steady decline path, supporting the Fed’s easing case. Both PCE and PCE deflator are now almost reaching the level seen before the pandemic. On the other hand, strong spending and stable…
Macro A year ago, economists concluded that getting inflation under control would require a spike in unemployment and a recession. During the year, inflation has come down faster than the event in the most optimistic forecast, while the economy maintained…
Macro The FED has a chair with a very dovish message, and the committee members are walking it back. But even with J. Powell’s dovish tone, markets have been already well ahead of the FED. Bonds have rallied, and financial…
