Macro The U.S. has launched an aggressive tariff regime that dwarfs the historical Smoot-Hawley tariffs in both scope and economic impact. What makes this shift even more consequential is that today’s U.S. economy is three times more integrated into global trade than it was in 1930. These new tariffs, applied unevenly across countries and products, have created a chaotic business environment in which companies are unable to make informed investment…

Macro This week marked a pivotal moment for global markets. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs sent shockwaves through the economy, while the latest jobs data revealed both strength and underlying fragility. With inflation concerns mounting and recession risks rising, markets now face a high-stakes reset. Here’s what you need to know. U.S. employers added 228,000 jobs last month, beating all forecasts despite downward revisions to previous months. The jobless rate…

Macro The February Core PCE rose 0.37% month-over-month, pushing the annualized rate to 2.79%. The increase was driven by price pressures in goods and non-housing services, even as shelter inflation continued to moderate. Earlier in March, a softer CPI report raised hopes that inflation might ease without aggressive Fed tightening. However, those hopes were dented by the PCE release, which failed to confirm a consistent disinflation trend. Further compounding concerns,…

Macro The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady against a backdrop of an increasingly uncertain economic outlook. While this decision was expected, it also provided relief to markets that the Fed did not rush to conclusions. Markets responded positively to the Fed’s stance, reaffirming the view that tariff-related inflation is likely transitory—reassuring that further aggressive tightening is not imminent. The market has shifted from inflation concerns to rising recession…

Macro Inflation is moderating, yet consumer anxiety persists, raising long-term inflation expectations. While tariffs typically have negative implications for both growth and inflation, analysts are currently placing greater emphasis on potential impacts on economic growth. Increased concern about an economic slowdown is prompting analysts to raise their recession forecasts. The Federal debt to GDP ratio is close to 1:1, and the US is running a deficit of 7% of GDP,…

Macro Growing concerns about economic growth have increased the frequency with which economists discuss the possibility of a recession. Recessions are not typically triggered by a single catastrophic event; rather, they are often the culmination of a period during which the economy becomes increasingly fragile. This fragility makes the economy vulnerable to potential shocks that can significantly reinforce downward pressure on growth and lead to a recession. Back in 2022,…