The Core CPI declined for the first time in six months, shifting expectations for rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields lower, and triggering a rally in risk assets. The December results showed signs of inflation moderation. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI rose 0.4% Month over Month and 2.9% year over year. The core CPI (which excludes food and energy) increased 0.2% Month over Month and eased to…

Macro The upside surprise to US payrolls has sent yields higher and counterbalanced the rate cuts. The Nonfarm Payrolls released on Friday came in hot at 256K compared to the consensus range of 150K-160K 165K (91K above 165K expectations). The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings grew 0.3% month over month, with a lighter annualized increase of 3.9%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report aligned…

Macro January typically does not benefit much from seasonal adjustments, but we should see some cooling in inflation in the following months. This expected easing is due to a softening job market, stabilizing shelter costs, and cooling auto insurance prices, which have previously distorted the CPI. Investors anticipate that the December U.S. payroll report will reflect a change in payrolls while other parameters remain steady. While inflation pressures may ease,…

Macro This Christmas week has been relatively quiet, with minimal market movement and limited economic news. Investors are now focusing on the upcoming year, with growth remaining a key concern. Reducing the Federal Funds Rate is expected to create a virtuous cycle by lowering real interest rates, encouraging capital spending, enhancing productivity, and accelerating economic growth. However, achieving this outcome depends on the Federal Reserve reaching its inflation target—a goal…

Macro The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was the week’s key event. Contrary to analysts’ strong expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut and signals of a potential pause in future cuts, the meeting was perceived as more hawkish than anticipated. The official statement included a minor but significant adjustment, indicating that the committee is preparing to assess the “extent and timing” of any further policy changes.…

Macro Investor macro analysis is heavily influenced by U.S. politics, centered on the presidential transition and cabinet appointments. Concerns persist over potential destabilization stemming from efforts to “dismantle the deep state,” which includes the intelligence community, defense establishment, and broader bureaucracy. However, optimism surrounds the prospects of deregulation and reduced government intervention, which could enhance efficiency and improve fiscal discipline. Resolving international conflicts is also a priority, with potential to…