Macro Initial jobless claims in the United States fell by 6,000 to 213K, beating expectations of 220K and reaching their lowest level since April. At the same time, however, continuing claims rose by 36K to 1.91 million, the largest increase in three years, suggesting that overall demand for workers may be softening. Despite this mixed signal, the labor market remains relatively strong. The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, and job…

Macro This week, the market has been digesting the first rate cut of the current cycle. The Fed began its easing with a jumbo 50 basis point cut, managing to avoid spooking the market. While the market had priced in nearly a two-thirds chance of a 50 bps cut the day before, the size still surprised some observers. With the first cut set at 50 bps, the probability of a…

Macro Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments and updated interest rate forecasts aim to reinforce a “Goldilocks” narrative—suggesting that economic conditions are neither too hot nor too cold while inflation continues moving in the right direction. The big question for the upcoming week is whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points (bps). The market is debating this first cut and trying to confirm if…

Macro This week’s economic developments were driven by the August payroll report, which missed expectations for job growth, while the unemployment rate was better than anticipated. The market now treats “bad news as bad news,” with caution reflecting a potential shift. A key issue is that economic slowdowns often start from strong levels, making distinguishing between a soft and hard landing difficult. Early on, job creation and wage growth may…

Macro This week, we had normalization of the macro numbers, with GDP revised upward, an uptick in consumer sentiment alongside a slight rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. This week’s key economic releases included: The GDP growth estimate for Q2 nearly doubled the Q1 estimate. This strength was primarily driven by consumer spending and business investments, which continued to show momentum. On the other hand, GDI only increased…

Macro Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole on Friday and BLS payrolls benchmark revision on Wednesday were the week’s highlights. Jackson Hall symposium is vital as the central bankers from around the world will discuss progress on the inflation front, which was a global phenomenon this time. Since inflation is no longer a primary concern while the restrictive effects of higher rates continue to dampen economic activity, the global tightening cycle…