Macro Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole on Friday and BLS payrolls benchmark revision on Wednesday were the week’s highlights. Jackson Hall symposium is vital as the central bankers from around the world will discuss progress on the inflation front, which was a global phenomenon this time. Since inflation is no longer a primary concern while the restrictive effects of higher rates continue to dampen economic activity, the global tightening cycle…

Macro In July, headline and core CPI eased for the fourth consecutive month, with year-over-year rates dipping to 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively. The 3-month moving average fell to an annualized 1.58%, its lowest point over three years. However, the overall CPI drop was largely driven by a sharp 2.3% decline in used vehicle prices—a trend unlikely to persist. Meanwhile, “super core” inflation, excluding shelter costs, increased by 0.1% after being…

Macro This week, the market has dealt with tremendous volatility, most of which was a repercussion of the Bank of Japan’s previous week’s decision (Wednesday, 31st of July) to hike for the second time in 17 years and bring interest rates to 0.25%. This decision made ‘carry-trade’ more expensive, causing Nikkei to sink 8.3% in the following 2 days (-2.49% on Thursday 01/08, and -5.81% on Friday 02/08). The magnitude…

Macro This week’s macro focus was on U.S. unemployment, non-farm payrolls, and the impact of the Bank of Japan’s decision to hike rates to 0.25%, covered in the rates segment. Let’s start with the key numbers for the U.S. labour market: To put those numbers in context, according to the FED’s Statement of Economic Projections, the neutral employment rate is 4.1%. Given the Fed’s tight policy stance, unemployment is expected…

Macro On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the U.S. economy grew 2.8% in Q2. This strong growth surpassed expectations of 2% and Q1 growth of 1.4%. At first glance, it confirms sustainably strong demand and consumer resilience. However, after analyzing underlying drivers, this result looks less impressive. Q2 growth mainly came from 3, not very desirable areas: Growth looks even less impressive when looking at “Real final…

Macro FED’s preferred inflation gauge – Core PCE is expected to end the year at 2.6%. J. Powell said 3 inflation prints from the second quarter added confidence that the inflation rate is moving toward the FED’s target. As inflation came down better than FOMC expected, it is no longer a major concern, allowing the FED to have a more balanced focus on their dual-mandate view. Powell explicitly stated that…